Monday's Market Minute: UBS Buys Credit Suisse

The week begins much like last week ended: with the focus on banks, uncertainty related to the regional names here in the U.S., the purchase of Credit Suisse over the weekend, and how, all things considered, stock index futures are holding up pretty well as we await the FOMC meeting. Let’s unpack it all and help you get ahead of a busy week to come.

First, the recent disruption from banks has pared back expectations for the Fed. The CME Fed Funds tool is now suggesting a 60% chance we'll see a 25bps rate hike Wednesday. The meeting this week will also provide more information in terms of further rate hikes to come, as well as the Fed’s inflation projections. Last week, the ECB raised rates by 50bps to combat inflation and sent the market a message of confidence and reassurance. 

In addition to the Fed, we also have Existing Home Sales Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday we get a look at weekly Jobless Claims, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index, and New Home Sales. We end the week with Durable Goods Orders and the PMI Composite Flash.

As far as earnings, you know you're at the end of the cycle when Nike (NKE) reports. We’ll hear from the apparel giant Tuesday, and we’ll also see quarterly results from Foot Locker (FL), Game Stop (GME), Chewy (CHWY), KB Home (KBH), DR Horton (DHI), and General Mills (GIS). 

Lastly, keep an eye on crude oil, off its worst weekly rout since April of 2020. Last week it traded back to fall of 2021 levels, a reflection of the demand destruction mentioned above, and is trading below $65 into the cash open this morning.

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