Monday's Market Minute: Spotlight On Inflation Data

Before we break down a few of the primary focal points for investors and traders this week, a quick look back at the jobs report Friday. Non-farm payrolls came in around consensus expectations at 236,000, but last month’s figure was revised up to 326,000. The unemployment rate fell and average hourly earnings also decreased—the Y/Y figure came in at 4.6% the lowest level we’ve seen since June of 2021. It'll be interesting to see the market response to the news today as stocks were closed Friday for the holiday.

For many, the focus this week will be on the inflation data due out Wednesday and Thursday. CPI and PPI will provide further insight as to how much price pressures on the consumer and producer here in the U.S. have eased. Expectations are for both to show declines in line with the trend we’ve seen: CPI M/M is expected to slow to 0.3% from 0.4% last month, and Ex-Food and Energy consensus is for 0.4% increase M/M vs 0.5% last month. The data this week will provide further insight in terms of expectations for what's to come at the May FOMC meeting and so will the FOMC minutes that are due out Wednesday. This week we also have the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Atlanta Fed Inflation Expectations, weekly Jobless claims, and Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment cap off the week Friday.

In addition to the data due out, we also have earnings to keep an eye on. This week we’ll hear from Tilray (TLRY), CarMax (KMX), Delta (DAL), Progressive (PGR), Fastenal (FAST), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and PNC (PNC), to name a few at the top of the list to watch. 

Lastly, commodities should be watched. Gold and crude are both on the move higher, a reflection of some of the geopolitical tensions and the weakening U.S. dollar. Crude is back to $81, and gold looks like it’s going to begin the week above $2K.

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