Thursday's Market Minute: Russell Breaks Above Long-Term Resistance

It’s been a big few days for Russell 2000 futures, as the contract has gained nearly +3% in only three trading days as of yesterday’s close. The Russell and Dow futures are the two among the major equity indices that have failed to make new yearly highs, but the past few days look promising for small-caps. More importantly, the contract broke above an old high close near 1,966 from a downtrend rally and then broke above a long-term downward trendline beginning with the highs of 2,033 in August. The trend looks strong as well, with major moving averages trending upward and the shorter-term averages (such as the 21-day Exponential Moving Average) diverging apart from its slower-moving peers which is a sign of trend strength.

However, don’t pop the champagne corks just yet. The /RTY is stalling at this resistance level in premarket trading, and the Relative Strength Index (also known as RSI, a measure of momentum of price change) failed to break above the overbought area. While this is not necessarily bad and also could change as the day progresses, bulls would want to see a strong break above price resistance as well as a push into the overbought area, which would typically be regarded as a sign of strength. 

To the upside, the contract needs to crack its old closing high from Feb. 2 near 2,004. Beyond that, the next high close comes in at around 2,025. To the downside, beware of a pullback to our old resistance points, namely our old trendline near about 1,975.

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