This week’s primary focus will be on labor conditions here in the U.S., with plenty of economic data to watch. Look for JOLTS on Tuesday, the ADP Employment report on Wednesday, the Challenger Job Cut report and the weekly Jobless Claims report on Thursday, with all of it leading up to the Non-Farm Payrolls data due out Friday. With employment, which continues to be surprisingly strong, the concern is we'll start to see wages reflect the tight conditions and further add to inflationary pressures. Many feel as long as the existing trends in employment continue, the U.S. can avoid recession – and so far, the data has been comforting to the market, so it will be interesting to see if that continues. We also have some data due out for the ISM Manufacturing Index and Construction Spending today.
In addition to the data mentioned above, we have a handful of companies set to open their books to investors. This week we'll hear from Conagra Brands CAG and Levi Strauss LEVI, both of which will shed more light on consumer trends and spending habits with rates at cycle highs. Lamb Weston LW and Constellation Brands (STZ) also are on the list of names to be watched.
In terms of markets, keep crude oil on your radar. The /CL contract spiked last month to $95, and WTI inching its way closer to triple digits has been adding to market headwinds. All four of the major indices are below their 50-day simple moving averages as bearish breadth expanded in September. Stocks selling off and taking out the August lows is a reflection of rates, which have been higher with the 10-year above 4.60% to begin the month of October and the shorter-dated 2-year above 5%. All of these factors have investors taking a step back and raising some concerns into the fourth quarter.
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