Wednesday's Market Minute: Bulls Need Just A Few More Things To Go Their Way

Yesterday the Nasdaq-100 closed above October's high, the first time a major stock index has made a notable higher-high since July. Apple AAPL did the same. Meanwhile, Microsoft MSFT just broke out to a fresh all-time high. Meta META and Alphabet GOOGL don't look far behind.

Even though small-caps are still near lows and market breadth does not extend terribly far past the mega-caps, the big tech companies are of course what matter most, and it looks like they're gearing up for a fresh run.

There is absolutely a bearish argument to be made that higher stock prices, lower crude prices, and stable employment strength raise the odds of continued firming in the economy and thus higher yields, but Jerome Powell and the Fed do not seem terribly concerned about such a reflation risk, and thus the selling in Treasury bonds has moderated to a stair-step function instead of a crash. 

There is also a decent amount more technical confirmation needed until bulls can start thinking about the possibility of new all-time highs. The S&P 500 needs to join the Nasdaq above its October high (around 4420), and the Russell 2000 needs to get back to 1800 to avoid spoiling the party. The dollar also needs to keep softening. It broke down through its range last week but it's pushing higher again the last three days. If it trades back above 106, it may get in the way of further risk-on, especially if the 10-year gets back above 4.7%.

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