Raise Cash And Hedges, Selling In Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, And Tesla – Weak Jobs Report

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Raise Cash And Hedges

Consider slowly raising cash and hedges.  It is especially important to hedge AI and tech stocks.  As full disclosure, in addition to overall hedges, The Arora Report has existing additional hedges on positions such as Alphabet Inc Class C GOOG, Micron Technology Inc MU, Apple Inc AAPL, NVIDIA Corp NVDA, Meta Platforms Inc META, Applied Materials, Inc. AMAT, Qualcomm Inc QCOM, NXPI, Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN, and Microsoft Corp MSFT.

Technology stocks and ETFs are very oversold.  Oversold markets tend to bounce.  The appropriate time to raise cash and increase hedges is on bounces – it should be done slowly.

Weak Jobs Report

Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that the stock market is falling after the release of the jobs report.
• The chart shows that the stock market is approaching the top band of the support zone.
• RSI on the chart shows that the stock market is oversold.  Oversold markets tend to bounce.
• Going into the jobs report, stock futures were down with intense selling in Nasdaq futures.
• More intense selling came in after the release of the jobs report.
• The jobs report shows that the employment picture has unexpectedly worsened.  Here are the details of the jobs report:
  • Nonfarm payrolls came at 114K vs. 170K consensus.
  • Nonfarm private payrolls came at 97K vs. 153K consensus.
  • Average hourly earnings came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • Average work week came at 34.2 hours vs. 34.3 hours consensus.
  • Unemployment rate came at 4.3% vs. 4.1% consensus.
• We shared with you yesterday that initial jobless claims were rising.  Initial jobless claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in the highly successful adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories.
• We also shared with you yesterday that the ISM data was very weak.
• In The Arora Report analysis, taken together, the foregoing raises the specter of stagflation.  Stagflation is an enemy of the stock market.
• Momo gurus persuaded their followers to aggressively buy stocks because they claimed they knew there would either be a soft landing or no landing.  The latest data shows that there is a fair probability of a hard landing.  Momo gurus being wrong is nothing new. Here is the key question for prudent investors: Will the momo crowd continue to follow momo gurus who are consistently wrong and risk more capital by continuing to aggressively buy stocks? The answer to this question will in large part determine the direction of the stock market over the next few weeks.  
• In The Arora Report analysis, the rise in the Japanese yen is also partly responsible for selling in the stock market.  As we previously shared with you, many funds have borrowed in yen and invested in the U.S. stock market.  
• Earnings from Amazon (AMZN) and Intel Corp INTC were below consensus and whisper numbers.  This is contributing to selling pressure on the stock market.
• Apple (AAPL) earnings are better than the consensus and whisper numbers.  However, business is poor in China and the growth rate given in the conference call for the current quarter was disappointing.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 QQQ.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust GLD.  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust SLV.  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF USO.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin BTC/USD is range bound.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever Generate Wealth Newsletter.