Trump Predicts A 1929-Like Market Crash If Harris Wins: Is This Possible?

Former President and current Republican candidate Donald Trump is going all out this election season, aiming to "reshape America and its role in the world.”

In a recent news conference, Trump stated that the U.S. stock market could crash if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the upcoming presidential election. 

"We are going to have a crash, and we're going to have a crash like a 1929 crash if she gets in," Trump said, adding, "You saw a gentleman yesterday who got up, one of the top analysts in the world, frankly, and said that if Trump isn't elected he predicts, and he's predicting you have a stock market crash like 1929."

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A Dramatic Prediction

Trump has been focusing on Harris' role in the current inflation crisis and the incumbent government's handling of the economy during his presidential campaign. During a rally at his New Jersey golf club, he claimed that "[Harris] broke the economy, broke the border and broke the world, frankly." 

However, during a recent interview, Harris countered that inflation has come down to 3% under the Biden administration, where she serves as Vice President. She also reiterated her plans to end price gouging in the food and grocery industries if elected to power. 

Nonetheless, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve, claimed that the current inflation rates cannot be explained by corporate strategies alone and that many other factors are involved. 

"The difference between what's happening to prices and what's happening to costs, that can vary a lot over the business cycle," Goolsbee said. "So I just caution everybody over-concluding from any one observation about markups."

However, Goolsbee also seemed to counter Trump's plans to raise tariffs, which could lead to sustained price increases. Notably, Trump raised tariffs significantly during his presidency from 2016 to 2020, and he has stated that his goal is to increase them further if elected president. 

"Whether you want to call that inflationary or not, they [tariffs] raise costs and prices," Goolsbee said.

Previous Comments 

This isn't the first time Trump has warned of a 1929 crash during a presidential election campaign. He used the same strategy during the 2020 election, claiming the stock market would crash and 401(k)s would become worthless if the Biden administration came to power. 

"You will have a depression, the likes of which you've never seen. Your 401(k)s will go to hell, and it'll be a very, very sad day for this country," Trump stated back in October 2020. "Our country will go into a depression, the likes of which we have not seen since 1929, and maybe worse," he added. 

In August 2020, Trump claimed to be "very good at predicting these things," as he stated, "We will go into a depression, no different than – maybe worse – no different than what happened in 1929. Your stocks will crash, your 401(k)s will be worthless. This is going to happen," if he lost.

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The Stock Market Right Now 

Interestingly, the current market conditions paint a different picture than Trump's bold claims. The stock market has seen significant gains since the Biden-Harris administration took office in January 2021. 

According to a post on X.com by the Harris War Room, the stock market has gained over 14,000 points since the inauguration of the incumbent President and Vice President, reflecting a "record high."

Furthermore, Kamala Harris seems to be leading the polls this election season by a 5% margin, according to a poll conducted by USA Today/Suffolk University. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index hit an all-time high on Aug. 30, surging by nearly 10.3% year-to-date. The benchmark S&P 500 index and the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite Index have both gained 18% so far this year. 

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