Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager John Paulson Predicts a Market Crash If Harris Wins – Here's What He Said

John Paulson, the founder and President of the hedge fund turned family office Paulson & Co., has been one of the most vocal supporters of former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump. He was also reportedly under consideration as the Treasury Secretary provided Trump succeeds in the upcoming election. 

The billionaire hedge fund manager first rose to prominence in 2008 after making nearly $15 billion by shorting the housing market, making him legendary on Wall Street. 

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Paulson has long supported Trump and was one of the biggest donors to his 2016 and 2024 campaigns. The 68-year-old Harvard graduate is estimated to have raised $48 million for Trump's current reelection campaign. 

Paulson vs. Harris

Paulson distrusts Harris because of her plans to increase corporate and personal taxes. Furthermore, the current vice president and Democratic nominee's plans to implement a "billionaire minimum tax" on unrealized capital gains have also been a source of contempt for the hedge fund manager. 

"They want to raise the corporate tax rate from 21 to 28%, they want to raise the capital gains tax from 20% to 39% and then they want to add a tax on unrealized capital gains of 25%," Paulson said. "I think if they implement those policies, we'll see a crash in the markets, no question about it."

Harris has also proposed implementing a 28% tax on long-term capital gains for households with a net annual income of over $1 million and a 25% tax on unrealized gains for households yielding over $100 million. 

"If Harris is elected, I would pull money from the market," Paulson said. 

The billionaire investor also predicted an immediate recession if Harris wins this election season, similar to Trump's claims of a 1929-like market crash. 

"If the Biden-Harris team does come in and they were to implement what's on their platform, which is a tax on unrealized gain, that's going to cause massive selling of homes, of stocks, of companies, of art and that could … put us immediately into a recession, so hopefully that if they are elected, they won't pursue that," Paulson said.

Some Wall Street analysts agree that raising corporate taxes could weigh on publicly traded corporations, which have benefited from lower rates during the Trump administration. Yet, while a hit to company earnings could lower stock prices, none of the major S&P 500 companies have voiced similar concerns. 

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Paulson's Support for Trump's Tariffs

Trump has long advocated for tariffs, including plans to impose tariffs on Chinese imports as high as 60% to improve the domestic manufacturing sector. 

"We're going to be a tariff nation," Trump said. "You will see a mass exodus of manufacturing from China to Pennsylvania, from Korea to North Carolina, from Germany to right here in Georgia."

While Wall Street is concerned about the broader ramifications of Trump's "America First strategy," Paulson believes this to be a "need."

"I think there's a desire, a need to decouple from China," Paulson said. "That's why I respect Trump because he says these things. Maybe he doesn't articulate them so well all the time, but when I listen and look into it, I find he's correct," he added.

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