As Candidates Promise More Homes, Trump's Deportation Plan Raises Red Flags For Construction Industry

Both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have vowed to increase housing construction, but one plans to deport hundreds of thousands of workers who build homes.

According to industry experts, contractors and economists, Trump's promise to "launch the largest deportation operation in the history of our country" could significantly hinder construction companies already struggling with labor shortages, potentially driving home prices even higher.

"It would be detrimental to the construction industry and our labor supply and exacerbate our housing affordability problems," National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) CEO told CNBC.

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Trump has yet to explain the specifics of his proposed "whole of government" plan to deport up to 20 million people – far exceeding the undocumented population – but he has made it a key part of his housing strategy.

He argues that mass deportations would make more homes available for U.S. citizens and reduce housing costs, though most economists disagree. However, some analysts are skeptical about the logistics of Trump's idea, saying the costs would be "astronomical."

In contrast, Harris plans to build three million more homes over four years.

"Harris has really focused on saying the federal government needs to find ways with local, state and federal government agencies to encourage additional housing production," Urban Institute researcher Yonah Freemark told USA Today. "There is some evidence that increasing availability of homes is associated with somewhat lower prices. I don't think it's the only solution to increasing affordability, but it is an important element of it."

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The NAHB views immigrants, regardless of legal status, as "a vital and flexible source of labor" for builders. According to the trade group, foreign-born workers fill about 30% of trade jobs like carpentry, plastering, masonry and electrical.

According to the latest federal data, nearly 11 million undocumented immigrants lived in the United States as of 2022, down from a high of 11.8 million in 2007. Undocumented workers comprise about 13% – 1.5 million people – of the construction industry's workforce. According to data the Pew Research Center provided to NBC News, that’s the highest share of any sector.

Experts note that the rates are even higher in Sun Belt states like Florida and Texas and are more prominent in residential construction than commercial projects.

Federal data show that the U.S. construction industry is already facing a labor shortage, with 370,000 positions unfilled.

There is evidence that immigrant construction workers help stabilize the housing market. A December 2022 analysis by the George W. Bush Institute and Southern Methodist University found that U.S. metro areas with the fastest-growing immigrant populations had the lowest construction costs.

"Immigrant construction workers in Sun Belt metros like Raleigh, Nashville, Houston and San Antonio have helped these cities sustain their housing cost advantage over coastal cities despite rapid growth in housing demand," the authors wrote.

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