What Does Trump's Victory Mean For EV Giant Tesla And The Big 3 Automakers?

Donald Trump has been elected as the 47th president of the U.S., and the future of the electric vehicle (EV) industry is uncertain.

Here's a look at how the president-elect’s policy changes could affect EV makers in the US. 

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Trump's EV Views: Trump, who has denied climate change, as largely condemned EVs. He claims they will cost autoworkers' jobs as factories make the shift to electric vehicles. He has also said EVs are being forced on consumers through unfair regulations. 

"I will end the electric vehicle mandate on day one, thereby saving the auto industry from complete obliteration which is happening right now and saving US customers thousands and thousands of dollars per car," Trump said in a speech at the Republican National Convention in July. 

Trump has also said he plans to eliminate many vehicle emissions standards under the Environmental Protection Agency as well as many EV incentives included in the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

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Analysts Weigh In: Wedbush analysts, including Dan Ives, see trouble ahead for the EV industry. 

“We believe a Trump presidency would be an overall negative for the EV industry as likely the EV rebates/tax incentives get pulled, however for Tesla we see this as a potential positive with some caveats,” the Wedbush analysts wrote. 

The analysts pointed to Tesla, Inc.'s TSLA profitability, along with the company's size and scale, as advantages over its competitors who may struggle after losing rebates and tax incentives. Wedbush also sees Tesla benefiting from higher import fees on Chinese EVs under a Trump administration. 

“Higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper EV players (BYD, Nio, etc.) from flooding the US market over the coming years,” Wedbush wrote. 

Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who campaigned heavily for the GOP leader, acknowledged that a Trump presidency would likely mean the end of EV subsidies and tax credits during Tesla's second-quarter earnings call.

The impact would be slight for Tesla and devastating for its competitors, Musk said.

"But long term probably actually helps Tesla, would be my guess, yes," Musk said. 

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The Big 3: Legacy automakers, General Motors GM, Ford Motor Company F and Stellantis NV STLA are struggling as they transition from traditional combustion engines to EVs.

The Big 3 automakers have recently announced they will delay investments and other plans related to the production of EVs amid waning demand from consumers. 

What's Next: It remains to be seen what measures will be repealed under a Trump administration and how each automaker will be affected. However, investors seem to agree with Tesla analysts that Trump's second term is a positive catalyst for the EV giant. Tesla shares are soaring 12.8% higher at $283.49 at the time of publication Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro. 

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