Why Super Micro's Future May Hinge On Nvidia Earnings, Nasdaq Deadline (UPDATED)

Editor's Note: The headline has been updated to reflect the article's content more accurately.

Super Micro Computer Inc SMCI is teetering on the edge of a dramatic pivot. Once a darling of Nvidia Corp's NVDA AI-driven success, the server manufacturer now finds itself grappling with a slew of issues that could determine its survival.

As Super Micro hurtles toward a Nasdaq delisting deadline, all eyes are on Nvidia's earnings next week to gauge whether Super Micro can steady its ship—or sink further into the abyss.

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Nvidia's Shadow Looms Large

Supermicro's close ties with Nvidia have been both a blessing and a curse.

Chart created using Benzinga Pro

Nvidia's dominance in AI chip innovation fueled a meteoric rise for SMCI stock, especially during the first quarter, but that relationship is now under scrutiny.

Recent whispers suggest Nvidia is diversifying its partnerships, reportedly redirecting orders from Super Micro to other server vendors. While Nvidia hasn't officially confirmed these moves, the implications are clear: reputational and operational risks tied to Super Micro's ongoing crises might be too hot for Nvidia to handle.

Nvidia's earnings call on Nov. 20 could be the turning point for SMCI stock investors. If Nvidia acknowledges its cooling stance toward Super Micro, the already battered stock might face another wave of sell-offs.

On the flip side, silence on the matter could offer Super Micro a temporary reprieve.

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SMCI Stock Potential Delisting Drama

Super Micro's troubles don't end with Nvidia. The company is racing against a Nov. 16 Nasdaq deadline to resolve its delinquent SEC filings, a fallout from the ongoing accounting fiasco sparked by Hindenburg Research's scathing short report.

With its 10-K filing delayed, its 10-Q now also postponed, and its auditor Ernst & Young resigning in October, the situation looks bleak.

If the Nasdaq delisting process kicks off, SMCI stock could lose access to critical ETFs and its spot in the S&P 500, leaving it to trade over the counter.

This downgrade could scare off institutional investors and trigger further downward momentum.

Nvidia’s Earnings – A Litmus Test For SMCI Stock Investors

Despite the doom and gloom, Super Micro isn't entirely out of moves. An independent committee has found no evidence of fraud among its management and plans to recommend remedial measures soon. If these measures, combined with a plausible compliance plan for Nasdaq, are compelling enough, Super Micro could buy itself more time to recover.

But even if SMCI clears these hurdles, regaining Nvidia's trust and rebuilding its credibility in the market won't be a walk in the park.

For now, Nvidia's earnings report might be a forecast for the AI boom and a litmus test for Super Micro's survival. Investors should brace for a make-or-break week ahead.

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