Joby Vs. Archer Vs. Blade: Which eVTOL Stock Is Ready For Takeoff?

The future of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft is still on the runway, with investors eyeing FAA approvals, cash burn, and market feasibility.

JPMorgan analyst Bill Peterson sees a mixed outlook for key players Archer Aviation Inc ACHR, Joby Aviation Inc JOBY and Blade Air Mobility Inc BLDE.

While each stock has its own trajectory, the broader theme remains a slow and measured ascent.

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Archer Aviation – Defense Is The Lifeline?

Peterson notes that Archer's commercial prospects remain clouded, but its defense opportunity could be a game-changer.

CEO Adam Goldstein has hinted that the potential market is "substantially larger" than expected, but investors need more clarity on size, timing, and cost. Archer's piloted flight strategy also raises questions compared to Joby's approach, with investors demanding tangible proof of safe, piloted flights.

Financially, the company expects core non-GAAP operating expenses to decline, while its Stellantis NV STLA partnership could reduce capital expenditure burdens. With a recent $300 million raise supporting its defense prototype, Archer stock remains a Neutral call from JPMorgan with a $9 price target.

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Joby Aviation – Cash Burn Woes, Certification Watch

Joby continues to make incremental progress, from FAA for-credit testing to an expansion in the Middle East and Korea.

However, Peterson highlights concerns over its cash runway, with investors watching its $500 million Toyota Motor Corp TM investment and a newly filed $300 million equity distribution agreement. The company expects cash burn to stay within guidance ($440 million -$470 million) but could rise in 2025 as it ramps up testing and operations.

Adding to the uncertainty, Joby is still looking for a CFO after its previous one departed in December. With dilution fears and high short interest, JPMorgan keeps an Underweight rating on Joby stock with a $6 price target.

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Blade – The Steady Climber

Unlike its eVTOL peers, Blade has a clearer path to profitability, thanks to its core medical transport business.

Peterson points out that TransMedics' recent read-through on organ transplant trends suggests strength in the segment, which could bolster Blade's medical margins.

The company also aims for positive EBITDA in 2024, with expectations of double-digit growth in 2025. Despite being the closest to profitability, Blade trades at a steep discount to its peers, at just 0.6x 2027 sales estimates. JPMorgan remains Overweight on Blade stock with a $6 price target.

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Turbulence Ahead?

With institutional investors still largely sidelined or short-biased, Peterson does not see the upcoming earnings cycle as a major catalyst.

A short squeeze is possible if companies show faster-than-expected progress, but a reality check on commercialization timelines could ground any speculative rally.

Among the three, Peterson views Blade as the most stable play, while Archer's defense pivot could be a long-term wildcard. Joby, on the other hand, may need to prove it won't run out of fuel before takeoff.

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