Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian outlined a packed week ahead for global markets, with inflation readings, central bank activity, and international developments taking center stage.
What Happened: The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, February Personal Consumption Expenditures data, tops the U.S. economic calendar amid ongoing stagflation concerns. Markets will closely analyze this report following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell‘s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% last week, despite projecting two rate cuts in 2025.
“The week ahead for the global economy and markets is packed with data releases,” El-Erian wrote Sunday on X. U.S. investors should also monitor durable goods data, trade, the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and multiple speeches from Fed officials.
Key Fed events include Governor Michael Barr's speech on small business lending on Monday and banking policy on Friday.
European markets face their own catalysts with the UK’s Spring fiscal statement and inflation data, Germany’s IFO business confidence index, and Eurozone PMI figures all due for release.
Why It Matters: In Asia, markets will scrutinize comments from China’s Premier Li Qiang about being “ready to deal with shocks that exceed expectations” – particularly significant as China contemplates export limitations amid escalating trade tensions with the U.S. Additional Purchasing Managers’ Index data from Australia, India, and Japan will provide further insights into regional economic health.
The week caps with Brazil releasing its central bank minutes.
This economic data arrives as Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warns of an imminent U.S. debt crisis, citing the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 122%. Meanwhile, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee sees potential for market recovery, drawing parallels to 2018’s tariff-induced volatility while noting today’s more accommodative Fed policy stance.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, despite identifying as a “deficit hawk,” has discussed challenges in balancing economic priorities under President Donald Trump‘s administration.
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