The latest data shows a split in U.S. trucking volumes since the tariffs were announced early this month, with certain regions and sectors performing significantly better than the others.
What Happened: On Sunday, Craig Fuller, the founder and CEO of FreightWaves Inc., a supply chain and logistics intelligence service, shared some stats on his X account regarding the performance of several regional trucking markets since the tariffs were announced, and what they mean for different sectors.
Fuller states that, based on the data compiled by his company, freight markets with exposure to agriculture and oil and gas markets are doing well since the trade war began. On the other hand, those serving retail and manufacturing segments are struggling, with heavy manufacturing getting completely “obliterated.”
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When asked if there are any correlations between freight markets and the earnings of different industries, Fuller says that they do, with dozens of hedge funds buying their data for this very reason.
Fuller then covered the latest figures for each of the major trucking markets within the United States, while explaining what they mean for different industries.
Kansas City and Omaha are the only two markets that witnessed a YoY increase in volumes, by 7% and 6%, respectively, with both cities being major agricultural hubs. Similarly, Houston, a major oil production, refining, and processing center, saw a mere 3% YoY decline in trucking volumes, hinting at the sector’s resilience in the face of tariffs.
Other major markets, especially those focused on manufacturing, aren’t faring too well, with Fuller adding that “If domestic manufacturing were picking up the slack from declining imports, it would be reflected in the trucking volumes out of a few major industrial markets.”
According to FreightWaves data, Atlanta, Dallas, and Chicago volumes are down 12%, 13%, and 19% YoY, respectively. The biggest decline was seen in Cleveland, a major manufacturing hub, which is down 35% YoY.
Why It Matters: This comes amid growing consensus that tariffs will not help U.S. manufacturing. According to a recent supply chain survey by CNBC, nearly half of the respondents say that President Donald Trump’s trade wars will lead companies to search for other low-tariff regimes, instead of reshoring.
U.S. manufacturing had already slipped into contraction in March, even before the major ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were announced. This decline was attributed to rising input prices as companies began stockpiling inventories to avoid the forthcoming tariffs.
The CEO of Blackrock Inc. BLK, Larry Fink also held a similar stance, stating that “The USA doesn’t even have enough workers to become a manufacturing economy,” during the CERAWeek energy conference last week.
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