Starbucks' Struggle Vs. Luckin's Lead In China's Coffee Wars

The company strengthened its position as China's leading coffee chain in last year's fourth quarter, as Starbucks looked for a new way forward in the ultra-competitive market

Key Takeaways:

• Luckin reported strong triple-digit gains in its operating and net income in the fourth quarter, sparking an 8% rally in its shares
• A weakened Starbucks is seeking a strategic partner for its $1 billion China business as consumers reject its pricey coffee in favor of cheap brews from its rivals

It was probably just a quirk of timing that Luckin Coffee Inc. (LKNCY.US) served up its latest quarterly results on Feb. 20, a few weeks after local archrival Starbucks (SBUX.US) offered its own latest financial report card on Jan. 28. But the two reports were as different as black and white, as Luckin strengthened its position as leader of the overheated Chinese market while Starbucks remained in a state of disarray.

Luckin's fourth quarter earnings were nothing short of spectacular, following a rocky period for the company and its peers amid an ongoing price war. The company's revenue rose 36.1% year-over-year to 9.6 billion yuan ($1.3 billion) in last year's fourth quarter, while its operating income soared 368% to 995 million yuan, and net income rose 184% to 841 million yuan.

Its self-operated same-store sales continued to drop during the quarter, but the declines eased notably to down 3.4% from negative 13.1% in the previous quarter. CFO An Jing added to the positive news by saying the metric turned positive in December, ending three quarters of declines.

Investors applauded the report by bidding up Luckin shares by 8% the day of the announcement, though the stock gave back all those gains over the next four trading days.

Behind the numbers is a brutal competition for market share, as Luckin and chief low-cost rival Cotti Coffee have matched each other's aggressive price cuts over the past two years, both selling their premium brew for as little 9.9 yuan per cup. One of the biggest victims of those price wars has been Starbucks, which has largely stuck to its far higher premium prices.

Starbucks reported its revenue in China, its second-largest market after the U.S., rose by an anemic 1% to $743.6 million year-over-year in the final three months of last year. Its same-store China sales fell 6%, reversing a 10% increase a year earlier, while its average ticket fell by 4%, improving from a 9% decline a year earlier. Starbucks also said its transactions fell by 2% during the quarter, a sharp reversal from a 21% rise a year earlier, as China's increasingly cautious consumers opted for lower-cost options like Luckin and Cotti.

Starbucks hasn't exactly given up on China, despite the difficulties, and continues to open new stores. Its domestic store count of 7,685 at the end of last year was up by 10% from a year earlier, though that appears to be behind a previously announced goal of 9,000 stores by 2025. By comparison, Luckin had 22,340 stores as of the end of last year, up 37.5% year-on-year, which helps to explain its nearly identical revenue growth in the face of such fierce competition.

Starbucks isn't just sitting idly by as its China ship wobbles. Its longtime China chief left the company in January, and global CEO Brian Nicol confirmed he is looking for strategic partners to help turn the operation around. Companies mentioned as showing interest in the unit, which is valued at about $1 billion, include Meituan (3690.HK), China Resources and private equity firms PAG, KKR and FountainVest.

Coffee love affair

When Starbucks opened its first store in Beijing in 1999, it was the start of a love affair with barista-style coffee in a tea drinking nation. Fast forward to the end of 2024, when its China stores accounted for nearly a fifth of its global total, as Chinese millennials flocked to those stores as much for their upscale urban image as for its coffee.

But China's economic slowdown has changed all that, driving consumers to lower-cost options. Luckin and Cotti are catering to such coffee drinkers, with both recently indicating they have no plans to turn back the taps on the 9.9 yuan coffee wars.

Despite the intense competition, everyone is still eyeing a market with big growth potential. The market was worth an estimated $16 billion in 2025, only one-fifth the size of the U.S. at $90 billion, according to Statista, even though China's population is more than four times the U.S.

While Luckin is growing at lightning speed, Cotti, which was founded by Luckin's disgraced co-founders who left after a major accounting scandal, is growing even faster. Cotti has said it aims to have 50,000 stores by the end of 2025, partly by embedding its kiosks within other venues such as convenience stores and food and beverage outlets.

Cotti Chief Strategy Officer Li Yingbo said at a conference in November the company had lined up 50 retail partners for the initiative, including convenience store chain Meiyijia, fast-food operator Fujian Wallace Food Co. and budget hotel operator BTG Homeinns, with the potential to collectively add up to 100,000 new locations.

The company still has quite a bit of ground to cover to reach its 50,000-store goal. Last October it said it had 10,000 stores globally, 95% of those in China. But it reached that milestone just two years after opening its first store in Fuzhou, capital of Southern China's Fujian province.

Luckin's strategy includes investment in supply chain and production facilities to build up its operation, which is a combination of about two-thirds self-operated stores and one-third franchised. Last November, it signed a $1.38 billion agreement for the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency to supply it with 240,000 metric tons of coffee over five years, an important hedge against rising coffee prices. Luckin also launched a new 570,000-square-foot roasting facility in the Eastern Chinese city of Suzhou last April and began construction of a new 3 billion yuan roastery and supply chain hub in Qingdao five months later.

Luckin has also announced international expansion plans, starting in Singapore, where it now has 51 stores. It had another two stores in Malaysia at the end of last year, and is reportedly eyeing the U.S. market, which would be a bold move into Starbucks' home turf.

Despite its consolidating position as China's coffee market leader, Luckin's valuation still looks lukewarm compared to Starbucks. It currently trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24 and is valued at $8.4 billion, which are far cries from Starbucks' $130 billion market cap and P/E ratio of 37. Cotti is still a private company and is almost certainly still losing big money due to its aggressive tactics and early stage of development.

Dozens of analysts follow Starbucks, a proxy for the global consumer economy, while only four polled by Yahoo Finance follow Luckin, which withdrew its U.S. listing after the 2020 accounting scandal and now trades over-the-counter. But those analysts are betting heavily on the company. Of the three with ratings on Luckin, two give it a "buy" while the third gives it a "strong buy."