George Soros: Greek Default May be "Inevitable"

Hedge fund giant George Soros is as concerned as anyone when it comes to the potentially contagious crisis in Greece. CNBC quoted his editorial in the Financial Times: Soros writes, "Greece is heading towards disorderly default and/or devaluation ... A Greek default may be inevitable but it need not be disorderly[…]While some contagion ... will be unavoidable, the rest of the euro zone needs to be ring fenced. That means strengthening the euro zone, probably by wider use of eurobonds and a euro zone deposit insurance scheme." Soros also advised that Europe would need a "Plan B" to figure out how to politically accomplish its goals, and to "revert to the goals that guided the union's creation." Soros is a Hungarian-American financier who survived World War II, studied at the London School of Economics, and became one of the most successful hedge fund managers in history. Part of his strategy involved developing a new idea of how to view the market. He learned to—with reasonable success—predict the actions of the market, partially by using philosopher Karl Popper's idea of reflexivity, which suggests that the market is constructed by how people view it. If an investor can understand how traders view the market, that investor may be able to more deeply understand the movements of the market itself. Soros is a hugely influential speaker on the economy, and according to the Financial Times is also a lecturer at the Central European University on the state of the world economy. Soros, fully aware of the impact his comments will have on the market, is speaking about markets that he is invested in. Soros is active in currency markets and European investments, and holds a stake in the broader development of that continent and the global economy. ACTION ITEMS:

Bullish:

• Deterioration in markets has seen people fleeing to gold (a related ETF is SPDR Gold TrustGLD), driving up prices, which could rally further if Greece defaults.

• It may be a profitable idea to short the whole European region with ProShares UltraShort MSCI Europe EPV

• You might also try the Market Vectors Double Short Euro Exchange DRR to short the euro in the event that it depreciates further.

Bearish

• A Greek default might drive down banks in Europe. It could be worthwhile to keep an eye on Deutsche Bank DB, UBS UBS, Barclays BCS, Banco SantanderSTD, Credit Suisse CS.

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