Tilray Stock Attempts Bullish Break As Seasonal And Political Catalysts Approach

Marijuana advocates and stakeholders such as the Marijuana Justice Coalition and National Cannabis Industry Association have bombarded U.S. senators with feedback on a bill for the federal legalization of cannabis.

Although President Joe Biden has been slower than many may have hoped to address cannabis reform, pressure seems to be mounting to end prohibition.

With bullish seasonality approaching the cannabis sector, a political move forward could give a much-added boost to many of the individual companies in the space such as Tilray Inc TLRY.

The Tilray Chart: Tilray’s stock has been trading in a downtrend since June 9, making fairly consistent lower highs and lower lows. The downtrend slowed on July 27 when the stock hit a bottom at the $12.54 mark. Since then, Tilray’s stock has not fallen below the level but has retested the level as support on three separate occasions creating a bullish triple bottom pattern on the daily chart.

Tilray has also fallen into a descending triangle pattern with an upper descending trendline holding the stock down since June 14. The stock has tried to break up from the pattern five times but failed, including this Tuesday and Wednesday.

The more times a security attempts to break from a trendline, the weaker the support or resistance becomes. Tilray could be powering up for a bullish upwards break.

Tilray is trading pinned between the eight-day and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMA) with the eight-day acting as support below and the 21-day as resistance above. If Tilray is able to regain the 21-day EMA, the eight-day will cross above the 21-day which would be bullish.

Tilray has a lot of work to do to regain the 200-day simple moving average.

• Bulls want to see big bullish volume come in and break Tilray’s stock up from the descending trendline of the triangle pattern. If the stock can gain the level as support it has room to move up to $15.71, although it may backtest the break of the pattern before doing so.
• Bears want to see big bearish volume come into Tilray to drop the stock below support at the eight-day EMA, which would also cause Tilray to trade below a support level at $13.41. If the stock loses the levels as support it could fall back toward $12.54.

Photo by Kym MacKinnon on Unsplash