Are The Illicit Market, Curaleaf And Trulieve The 3 Biggest Winners From Rescheduling Cannabis?

This article was originally published on Cannabis.net and appears here with permission.

President Joe Biden's support of the administration's decision to reschedule cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III is likely to result in considerable financial benefits for large, legal cannabis businesses and the illicit market. This action may lessen the restrictions imposed by IRS tax regulation 280E, which has banned cannabis businesses from deducting standard business expenditures. Which cannabis firms will gain the most from this change?

The illicit market will get a huge boost by removing the punshiments associated with getting caught dealing or transporting a Schedule 1 drug.  Now that the fines, prison sentences, and desire to enforce Schedule 3 crimes is lessened, look for the illicit market to boom across America.  It is estimated that the illegal cannabis market is 3x the size of the legal US market as of 2024, so look for that multiple to expand if Schedule 3 is enacted.  Removing a negative incentive in economics always leads to predictable action.

In the legal market, the largest MSOS, or those that paid the most taxes, have the most to gain by a repeal of the 280E tax code and future tax credits or refunds coming their way

Industry Leaders in Tax Payments

Rescheduling cannabis will abolish the onerous 280E tax law, potentially freeing up more than a billion dollars in tax savings for the business. Curaleaf CURLF and Trulieve TCNNF, both of which make considerable tax payments, are among the firms most likely to profit. Repealing 280E limits would allow these businesses to deduct typical business costs, greatly improving their financial situation.

Truelive alone stands to get $113,000,000 in tax refunds and savings!

Senior analyst Pablo Zuanic of Zuanic & Associates believes that these tax reductions may result in improved cash flows, allowing these businesses to reinvest in development and growth. In the quickly changing cannabis market, having this kind of financial flexibility is essential for keeping a competitive advantage and encouraging creativity.

Zuanic has consistently highlighted the disparity between current market valuations and the potential upside, particularly if federal legalization occurs. He emphasizes that immediate cash flow improvements could lead to substantial revaluation of these companies. By enabling the deduction of ordinary business expenses, the financial statements of these companies would more accurately reflect their true profitability, attracting more investors and boosting market confidence.

The potential tax savings are a temporary relief and a game-changer for the industry. Analysts believe that the improved cash flow could result in substantial revaluations of cannabis companies. For Curaleaf and Trulieve, this change would mean their financial statements would better represent their actual profitability, leading to increased investments and further expansion opportunities.

Curaleaf's Financial Outlook

Beacon Securities' Russell Stanley sheds light on Curaleaf's financial landscape, highlighting the company's adept management of operating cash flow. This proficiency facilitated a successful debt repurchase post-quarter, significantly enhancing its financial stability. With the anticipated rescheduling of cannabis and the potential enactment of the SAFER Banking Act, Curaleaf stands to benefit from a transformed financial environment, potentially witnessing a substantial surge in its operating cash flow by up to 92% and free cash flow by 188%.

Wedbush Securities recently released a report on Curaleaf, elevating the stock's 12-month price target from $6.00 to $7.00 while maintaining a buy recommendation. The report underscores Curaleaf's commendable performance in key domestic markets like Connecticut, Arizona, Maryland, and New York. Projections indicate a revenue uptick to $1.50 billion by 2025, coupled with improvements in overall profitability. This optimistic forecast reflects the company's robust financial position and its strategic market presence.

Proactive debt management techniques and well-thought-out market positioning highlight Curaleaf's potential for long-term development and financial success in the changing cannabis industry. Curaleaf is in a strong position to benefit from the rescheduling of banking and cannabis legislation, which may lower regulatory obstacles and further establish the company's leadership in the cannabis market.

Unlocking Trulieve's Growth Potential

Trulieve's growth trajectory is drawing attention, particularly from Needham's Matt McGinley, who emphasizes the company's operational efficiency. McGinley points out that Trulieve has achieved its highest gross margin and EBITDA rates observed in over two years, indicating strong operational performance. This efficiency positions Trulieve favorably for capitalizing on emerging opportunities in the cannabis market.

Key legislative advancements in pivotal markets such as Florida and Pennsylvania present significant growth potential for Trulieve. As these markets potentially transition to adult-use cannabis, Trulieve stands to benefit from increased demand and expanded market reach. Leveraging its operational efficiency and established market presence, Trulieve is poised to capitalize on these legislative shifts to drive revenue growth and enhance shareholder value.

Trulieve is positioned to be a major participant in the growth of the cannabis sector due to its strategic focus on operational excellence and its flexibility in responding to changing regulatory environments. Trulieve is in an excellent position to maintain its growth trajectory and establish itself as a top cannabis supplier, thanks to encouraging legislative changes and a proven track record of high performance.

Analysts' Industry Impact Assessment

Viridian Capital Advisors offers insights into the industry impact, noting that ten MSOs exceeded EBITDA estimates by $37 million in the first quarter of 2024. This performance suggests that initial projections may have been conservative, indicating a positive trend for cannabis companies. Analysts from Viridian specifically highlight Curaleaf and Trulieve, among others, as poised to benefit from the financial changes resulting from the removal of 280E tax restrictions.

The long-term outlook for the cannabis industry remains bullish, with potential federal legalization driving substantial valuation growth. Pablo Zuanic from Zuanic & Associates suggests that the US market alone could justify over $110 billion in valuations by 2030 assuming federal legalization. The removal of tax restrictions would directly impact bottom lines, potentially leading to significant valuation increases for many cannabis stocks.

All things considered, the possible repeal of the 280E tax laws offers cannabis businesses a big chance to improve their financial standing and market value. As analysts speculate that early projections may have overestimated the sector's potential, businesses like Curaleaf and Trulieve might gain from more cash flow and better profitability, setting them up for long-term success in the changing cannabis market environment.

Bottom Line

The impending rescheduling of cannabis and the potential repeal of IRS tax regulation 280E offer a substantial opportunity for cannabis companies to strengthen their financial positions and market appeal. Industry leaders such as Curaleaf and Trulieve stand to benefit significantly, with projected increases in cash flow and profitability paving the way for sustained growth. Analysts anticipate a positive market response, with potential valuation growth and a bullish outlook for the long-term trajectory of the cannabis industry. These regulatory changes mark a pivotal moment, allowing businesses to capitalize on newfound financial flexibility and attract investor confidence. As the sector continues to evolve, Curaleaf, Trulieve, and other key players are positioned to thrive, driving innovation and shaping the future of the cannabis market.

This article is from an external unpaid contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.