Trump's 2025 Energy Policy: A Resurgence Of Fossil Fuel

Trump's recent executive orders shift U.S. energy policy sharply, dismantling prior initiatives and boosting fossil fuel growth.

Key Players in the Energy Landscape

The Trump administration scrapped the Biden-era goal of 50% electric vehicle (EV) sales by 2030 and cut EV subsidies. This signals a retreat from clean energy priorities. Instead, it lifted a moratorium on new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permits to non-free-trade-agreement countries. Companies already navigating early-stage approvals benefit directly from this move.

The pro-energy stance attracts foreign interest, too. Emirates-based ADNOC eyes U.S. resources, with its XRG arm-managing $80 billion in assets as of April 2025-planning major investments soon. It's even exploring an initial public offering. These orders reshape the energy sector, favoring fossil fuels over renewables and setting a new course for industry leaders.

Infrastructure Surge and Market Dynamics

Trump champions domestic pipelines and LNG export facilities, notably an Alaskan project. The International Energy Agency (EIA) projects global LNG demand will rise 50% by 2040 from 2020 levels. Cheniere Energy, a top LNG producer, and TotalEnergies, a global LNG infrastructure leader, stand to gain. Cheniere's stock climbed 20% year-to-date in 2025, showing strong investor confidence.

Exxon Mobil and Chevron shine as high-margin producers. Exxon aims to double its LNG output to 40 million tons annually by 2030, per its 2024 report. However, Trump's tariffs, meant to cut oil prices and boost U.S. firms globally, create risks. Voters may like cheaper gas, but low prices could hurt producers like Occidental Petroleum, Valero Energy, and Marathon Oil. Occidental's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.2 in Q1 2025 signals vulnerability to sustained low oil prices.

A Long-Term Fossil Fuel Horizon

Trump's directives promise steady growth in U.S. fossil fuel production. U.S. oil output hit 13.5 million barrels per day in March 2025, up from 12.8 million in December 2024, per the Energy Information Administration. Streamlined permitting and reduced red tape drive this expansion. Active drilling rigs rose 10% since January 2025, Baker Hughes reports, reflecting increased activity.

The focus on pipelines and LNG facilities points to robust gas investments. In 2025, FERC approved three new LNG terminals, adding 30 million tons per year to export capacity by 2030. This could cement the U.S. as a fossil fuel leader, leveraging immediate and future LNG demand. By cutting regulatory delays, the administration unlocks projects, paving the way for sustained oil and gas growth.

Balancing Executive Orders Against Tariffs

Tariffs pose challenges elsewhere but impact U.S. oil firms less. Domestic providers like Halliburton and Schlumberger dominate, holding over 60% of the U.S. oilfield services market, per Rystad Energy's 2025 report. U.S. manufacturers produce over 90% of oil and gas equipment, a 2024 API study notes, shielding the sector from import tariffs.

This self-reliance minimizes tariff risks. Even modest gains from Trump's orders-like faster permits or LNG export growth-could yield net benefits. Deregulation provides a clear edge, likely outweighing trade uncertainties and giving oil companies a strong outlook.