Energy Goals Are Impossible Without Copper Price Surge, Study Shows

A new study from the Society of Economic Geologists (SEG) warns that copper prices will need to more than double if the world is to produce enough of the metal to support the global energy transition.

The research paper by Cathles, Simon and Wood reveals that current and anticipated copper production falls far short of the demands imposed by both continued global development and decarbonization efforts. These experts from Cornell University, the University of Michigan, and the University of Queensland argue that unless prices rise substantially to incentivize new mining, the energy transition will stall—crippled by a fundamental material shortfall.

Even in the "business-as-usual" demand scenario, which excludes the impacts of electrification and focuses solely on expected growth from rising global incomes and population, the mined copper output must increase from 20.4 million tons per year in 2018 to 37.1 million tons per year by 2050. Such growth would require adding over half a million tons of new capacity each year —a challenge equivalent to commissioning 36 large new mines or 759 smaller ones within just three decades.

Given that large copper mines often take more than 20 years to develop from discovery to production, the authors deem this outcome improbable. Five of the current top ten mines are expected to close by 2050, and many smaller mines will follow suit.

However, mining economics notably worsen the picture. The rising development cost means that brownfield projects now require around $23,000 per ton of added annual production capacity. Since copper prices generally track capital intensity one-to-one, the authors conclude that "the future copper price must exceed $20,000 per ton" to make new development viable. At today's price of roughly $9,600, that means copper prices must more than double just to enable supply to meet projected demand.

Yet, those problems seem minuscule in comparison to supply problems when considering electrification and energy transition, especially the demand from wind and solar energy generation. If those two sources of energy were to dominate the power mix, annual copper mining would have to increase by 22.5 large new mines per year on average between 2018 and 2035.

"Deposits cannot be discovered and mines cannot be developed at this rate," the authors noted. In this scenario, more copper would be mined by 2050 than in all previous human history combined, with over half of the known copper endowment exhausted in just three decades.

The International Energy Agency report warns that the world is closer to the second scenario than the first one. According to the latest research, global electricity use from AI data centers is expected to more than double by 2030, reaching approximately 945 terawatt-hours (TWh), surpassing the current power consumption of Japan. With the rise of AI, demand for clean, reliable electricity is skyrocketing. Yet building solar- and wind-heavy grids capable of supporting AI's loads would significantly increase the need for copper-intensive grid infrastructure and storage.

The SEG study also highlights a global equity issue. Developing countries require approximately 1,043 million tons of copper to achieve infrastructure levels comparable to those in high-income nations. That is equivalent to 50 years of current global copper production. Thus, a copper shortage problem and a price bidding war could result in resource hoarding, diverting the metal away from the developing world's growth.

"Society can have a win-win solution or a fail-fail solution. For a win-win outcome, the copper needs of the electrical transition must be nearly completely eliminated," the research said.

To ensure copper is available for both electrification and human development, strategies that minimize copper use, such as nuclear power, methane backup plants, and hybrid vehicles, must be a priority, scientists concluded.

Price Watch: iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF ICOP is up 9.52% year-to-date.

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