Trump's 50% Copper Tariff Shocks Markets—These Stocks Are Winning Big

A surprise 50% import tariff on copper announced by President Donald Trump on Tuesday sent the red metal into a frenzy, driving prices to a historic high of $5.90 per pound as investors rushed to price in potential supply constraints.

U.S.-based copper stocks Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCX and Southern Copper Corp. SCCO stand to post outsized gains if copper prices continue climbing.

While the measure appeared unplanned, the short implementation timeline—expected before the end of July or early August—has made it increasingly likely that the 50% rate will take effect, according to Goldman Sachs analyst Eoin Dinsmore.

"We change our baseline to a 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports from 25% previously," Dinsmore said in a note Wednesday.

What's Driving The Copper Price Surge?

The shock tariff announcement comes amid already tight global copper supplies.

Goldman Sachs maintained its December 2025 London Metal Exchange (LME) copper forecast at $9,700 per metric ton, but said the odds of prices exceeding $10,000 in the third quarter have diminished.

Still, with global supply lagging demand and the U.S. set to experience a copper stock drawdown, prices are likely to remain elevated for months, according to the bank.

“We expect a further acceleration in shipments into the U.S. in the coming weeks,” Dinsmore said, as traders rush to import ahead of tariff implementation.

Steel and aluminum tariffs were also raised to 50% in June, with markets pricing in 80% of that move—providing a precedent for copper to follow a similar pricing trajectory.

Copper's 13% advance on Tuesday not only marked its largest single-day rally on record, but also lifted prices to fresh all-time highs, said LPL Financial's chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist. While the metal has since pared some gains, it still remains above key support at $5.22 per pound.

"The surging demand for U.S. copper ahead of the looming tariffs has pushed domestic prices to a +25% premium over copper trading at the London Metal Exchange (LME)," Turnquist said.

At the same time, LME inventories have been significantly depleted, raising concerns about a global supply shortage outside the U.S.

He added that rising copper prices could significantly affect copper-intensive sectors such as building construction, equipment manufacturing, electric vehicles and electronic products.

"The widespread use of copper might also fuel inflation concerns," Turnquist said.

Which Stocks Could Potentially Gain From Trump's Copper Shock?

Freeport is the top U.S. copper equity play and holds a nearly 9% weighting in the iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF ICOP.

Southern Copper Corp. could another key beneficiary, with the stock returning 10.1% year-to-date.

Globally, copper production is heavily concentrated in Latin American countries like Chile and Peru—home to some of the world's largest deposits.

This puts additional focus on companies such as Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V GMBXF., the parent of Southern Copper, and BHP Group Ltd. BHP, which has significant operations in Chile's Escondida mine, the world's largest copper mine.

Other global players include First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Antofagasta plc ANFGF, focused on Chilean mining, and Evolution Mining Ltd. CAHPF, an Australian company diversifying into copper alongside its core gold assets.

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