Global Copper Output to Grow 2.9% Annually Through 2034

Global copper production is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.9% over the next decade. The latest forecast from BMI (Fitch Solutions) expects the rise from 23.8 million tons in 2025 to 30.9 million tons by 2034, owing to new projects and expansions across key jurisdictions in South America, Asia, and Africa.

The report, cited by Shanghai Metals Market, shows that global copper output is expected to rise 2.5% in 2025, driven by a recovery in Chile and further ramp-up at Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi mine.

The 2025 projection has been revised downward slightly due to reduced guidance at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the DRC, which was affected by seismic activity. BMI noted continued downside risks flagged by miners such as Glencore GLCNF and Anglo American AAUKD, but noted an optimistic outlook from key producers like Chile's Codelco.

Regionally, Chile is forecast to maintain its position as the world's top copper producer, with 2025 output expected to reach 5.7 million tons, accounting for around 25% of global supply. Sustained growth from Teck Resources' TECK Quebrada Blanca project will help offset declines at aging mines from Codelco, which linger despite multi-billion-dollar capex.

Zambia, while facing structural challenges, is also expected to post steady gains as investor interest grows and reforms take hold. BMI believes that countries across Africa and South America could capture a greater share of global production as Western manufacturers push for diversified and stable supply chains.

Copper is currently in the spotlight owing to President Donald Trump's plan to impose a 50% tariff on refined copper beginning August 1. Yet, domestic shortages might force the administration to reconsider before higher costs start pushing prices higher. Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina warned that "the U.S. does not have nearly enough mine, smelter or refinery capacity to be self-sufficient in copper," adding that tariffs are likely to drive U.S. price premiums higher relative to global markets.

Still, foreign miners see an opportunity in ramping up the US production. Per Bloomberg's report, Rio Tinto's RIO copper Chief Executive Katie Jackson said the company sees "significant opportunities to grow our business in the United States" and noted a "strong desire" to invest more in U.S. copper mining. 

Industry veteran Robert Friedland backed Trump's tariff plan, calling it "obvious and intelligent" for pushing domestic production.

"There's a new list of critical raw materials and without it, you can't do anything about global warming or greening the world economy, and you have a critical vulnerability in national security," the billionaire founder of Ivanhoe Mines said to The Financial Times.

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