Gold To $3,500? Citi Thinks So—Bitcoin Hits $114K As Weak Jobs, Trump Tariffs Trigger Flight To Safety

Citigroup Inc. C raised its three-month gold price forecast to $3,500 per ounce from $3,300 on Monday, citing deteriorating U.S. growth and inflation outlook.

Bank Raises Target on Tariff Concerns, Weak Jobs Data

The bank expanded its expected trading range to $3,300-$3,600 from $3,100-$3,500, according to Reuters.

Spot gold traded at $3,356.88 per ounce on Monday, while Bitcoin BTC/USD held steady near $114,413.68, up 4.30% over seven days with a market cap exceeding $2.27 trillion.

Trump Tariffs Fuel Safe-Haven Demand

“U.S. growth and tariff-related inflation concerns are set to remain elevated during 2H’25, which, alongside a weaker dollar, are set to drive gold moderately higher, to new all-time highs,” Citi analysts said.

President Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs last week, ranging from 10% to 41% on imports from dozens of countries, effective August 1. Key levies include 25% on Indian goods, 35% on Canadian exports, and 50% on Brazilian imports. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated these tariffs will likely remain in place rather than be negotiated down.

Labor Market Weakness Drives Fed Cut Bets

July nonfarm payrolls rose just 73,000, well below the 110,000 expected. More concerning, May and June employment figures were revised down by a combined 258,000 jobs—the largest downward revision since 2020.

Markets now price in an 81% probability of a September Federal Reserve rate cut, according to CME FedWatch data. The two-year Treasury yield tumbled 20 basis points to 3.75% Friday, posting its largest intraday drop in over a year.

Gold Demand Fundamentals Strengthen

Citi estimates gross gold demand has risen over one-third since mid-2022, nearly doubling prices by the second quarter of 2025.

Gold traditionally thrives in low-interest-rate environments and during political uncertainty. The SPDR Gold Trust GLD surged 2.24% as investors sought safe-haven assets amid tariff tensions and economic concerns.

Markets experienced broad selling on Friday, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.2% and the Nasdaq 100 falling 1.3% as trade war fears resurfaced alongside weak employment data.

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