2021 Bitcoin Predictions from 5 Crypto Leaders (Part 1)

Justin Sun, Roger Ver, Tim Draper, Adam Draper, and Eric Richmond of Coinsquare provide insights into Bitcoin's future for 2021.

We are just 15 days into the new year, and it is already feeling like the seventh season of a fairly bloody one-hour HBO drama. (I've already mentioned which one.) Angry mobs in the Capital building, conspiracies and betrayals, and most of us sheltering in place just trying not to get the virus. 

In the meantime, Bitcoin's b-plot is taking off.

In late 2020, Bitcoin (BTC) quadrupled in price -- leaving some wondering if the gains would follow the familiar plot of 2017 when BTC exceeded $20,000 then lost two-thirds of its value.

Asking the Experts

To point us in the right direction in 2021, I have surveyed some of the most prominent leaders, founders, investors, evangelists, and innovators in blockchain and crypto to share their insights on Bitcoin's trajectory for the year. Here are their responses edited for length. 

Tim Draper Founder of Draper Associates

"Nothing is steady when one technology supersedes another. As Bitcoin eclipses the government currencies and the banking system, there are going to be many fits and starts. I stand by my $250,000 prediction by end of 2022 or early 2023.

As institutions move from thinking it is crazy to imagine a new currency to recognizing Bitcoin as a "must-have" for every portfolio...

While I am most interested in Bitcoin, the currency leader, ETH and XTZ and others have paved a new path for smart contracts and proof of stake that will drive governance of currency into the future. I like MKR as an insurance company and ANT and JUR as new forms of liquid democracy. I like XRP and BCH for their proliferation, though centralized. I like KEEP for its ability to open up new forms of finance. (There are) many others.

Bitcoin has the potential to open up the world and put all (at least virtual) workers on the same platform. Where one Bitcoin is always one Bitcoin, and if people are paid in Bitcoin, they know what that means..."

Justin Sun, Founder of and CEO of TRON and CEO of BitTorrent and Peiwo

"Bitcoin has been one of the top stories of 2021 everyone and their grandma is talking about BTC this year. Doomers, nocoiners, and bears like to use every opportunity to point to the death of bitcoin or to equate crypto to the dotcom bubble. In my opinion, the recent correction of BTC is a reflection of a healthy market with active traders and investors. BTC still has a ways to go in terms of price growth, In December 2020, a leaked Citi report revealed one of the bank's senior analysts thinks bitcoin could potentially hit a high of $318,000 by December 2021. Although it's anyone's guess what the price of BTC will be at the end of 2021, we know for certain that the bull market is here and it looks like it's here to stay. 

Historically, we have seen the altcoin season take off as Bitcoin achieves record-high prices. Notably, when BTC breached its all-time high in the past two bull cycles, altcoins have typically rallied in its wake... Altcoins like ETH and LTC don't need me to cheerlead on their behalf and have already seen significant gains during this bull run. However, with negligible transaction fees and a rapidly expanding DeFi ecosystem, TRON is quickly heating up as a hotbed for DeFi innovation..

The average individual buying crypto during a bull run has minimal to no real grasp of cryptonomics, the impact of regulation, institutional investment, buyer sentiment and the global economy impact the price movements of BTC. This is enough to scare most novice investors, one thing to keep in mind is that the crypto market is still moving towards its equilibrium and we are bound to see pumps and retracements..."

Roger Ver, Bitcoin Evangelist and Angel Investor, CEO of Bitcoin.com

"... In terms of its price, I see no reason why it couldn't keep going up for a long time. It has the brand name and if you talk to people on the street, nobody outside of the small cryptocurrency bubble has ever heard of the scaling debates or that Bitcoin is no longer p2p cash. They're buying on its past potential, its name, and excitement about making money. And of course, to the degree it retains its qualities as money, people want that. More importantly, many of the scaling problems that could effectively limit the number of people who could be involved in BTC at any time have been "solved" by centralized services like PayPal, Cashapp, and exchanges..

I think there is going to be a growing demand for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Cash (BCH) that can actually handle massive on-chain traffic, especially with everything going on in the world. And when I talk to big investors, many of them are starting to look at Bitcoin and ask "can it really achieve the same kind of gains it has in the past?" I think a lot of them are doubtful the price will go up at the same rate and they're going to be looking for the next thing to invest in because there is little reason to hold Bitcoin unless the price is increasing. 

...A lot of the influential developers and companies today are unable or unwilling to see the indirect consequences of rate-limiting Bitcoin. For example, a system in which fees will at scale cost thousands of dollars will have the effect long term of centralizing funds on single addresses, which hurts privacy, and on exchanges, which hurts privacy and censorship resistance… Similarly, in the effort to essentially put price controls on the cost of operating a full node so that everyone can run one, the resulting high fees have limited the number of people who will effectively run one because they won't be able to afford to transact on-chain in the first place. You might in fact have ended up with more nodes on the whole, even if they cost much more to run if fees were low so everyone could participate in economic activity on the Bitcoin chain.

This is what people are missing, that technical development decisions that seem smart in the short term (who doesn't want cheaper prices?!) have profound and harmful economic consequences that might take decades to be realized..."

Adam Draper, Co-Founder and Managing Director of Boost VC

"My 1 BTC is still worth 1 BTC. It's that other currency, US Dollars, that keeps falling.

At the end of the day, the value delivered to the end consumer is the only thing that matters. If Alt-Coin season comes it's because the value is starting to be real. BTC already has the store of value feature that is super helpful (and) institutions are flocking.

Bitcoin gave us scarcity online. We are in the skeuomorphic phase. We are learning where replacing third-party trust with mathematical proof is helpful. The opportunity is not about the focus on technology, it's about enabling new financial products and granting access to value to the rest of the world. The focus is on decentralizing the internet -- pick around there, and you will find the biggest opportunities. I'm excited about Unstoppable Domains and others in that space."

Eric Richmond -- Chief Operating Officer & VP, Legal at Coinsquare

"I anticipate a steady climb for Bitcoin. I predict that there will be swings in the market and the price may come back down to the US$20K range or under, but the overall trend line for the year will be positive.

People saw what happened in 2017 when they put faith in projects that were not close to being live. There will not be the same frenzy across as many projects as there was in 2017, but a few Altcoins will flourish in 2020 -- especially the ones with real utility, such as Ethereum.

Corporations, institutional investors, family offices, and hedge funds all want Bitcoin to diversify their portfolios. With so much demand for Bitcoin - both institutional and retail - the hype is justified."

Regulation is the biggest factor. In the long run, this will be positive for BTC, but there will be bumps in the road, such as the recent FINCEN guidance."

Conclusion

If the incredible rise of Bitcoin resembles 2017, the way experts are talking about crypto has a palpable change in tone. The vision of decentralized global currency and transactions is consistent, but retail and institutional investors' reasons for entering the crypto market are more about leveraging a deflationary asset and less about decentralization, autonomy, and privacy -- and the goal of mainstream adoption is much closer on the horizon. White papers and use cases have become real users and the global events including the pandemic and weakening US economy have only lent more relevancy to Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin is the flag leading the charge to the mainstream global audience.  What remains to be seen is the rate of adoption now that the die-hard crypto enthusiasts have to share their innovations with the world. 

My thanks to all who participated. I will share more responses in a second installment of the article. - Justin

*Header image by Three-shots from Pixabay