AMC Pops, Bitcoin Drops: Why We're Seeing Another Meme Stock-Crypto Reversion And What Comes Next

An observation we've made in previous posts (e.g., AMC: Return Of The Meme Stock) was that the resurgence in meme stocks last spring came as Bitcoin sagged. That made sense, as the parabolic rally in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies earlier in the year had siphoned some of the speculative fervor out of meme stocks. So it may not have been entirely coincidental that AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. AMC closed up nearly 9% on the same day Bitcoin BTC/USD dropped by double digits. But the proximate cause for the rally was most likely the news that weekend box office numbers for America's largest movie chain finally beat a pre-pandemic record.

A Top Name In April, And Again In August

AMC first hit our daily top ten names in April at $9.36 per share. It hit our top names list again in August again in August at $33.07.

Screen capture via Portfolio Armor on 8/12/2021.

Since August 12th, AMC was up 44.63% as of Tuesday's close.

Our time horizon for our top names is six months, so our subscribers who bought AMC in August are likely still long the stock. If you own it, we suggest you consider hedging it, in the event it pulls back significantly. You can use our website or our iPhone app to scan for optimal hedges.

Bitcoin Stumbles 

As Bitcoin prices topped $52,000 over the weekend, we anticipated taking a victory lap over the Riot Blockchain, Inc. RIOT trade we wrote about at the end of July (A Hedged Bet On A Bitcoin Breakout). Instead, Bitcoin tanked on Tuesday, taking the Bitcoin miner down with it. As of Tuesday's close, RIOT was down 2.55% since our article. 

So why did Bitcoin drop? The short answer is no one knows. Maybe the most likely reason is that crypto traders bought the rumor of El Salvador President Nayib Bukele's promise to make Bitcoin legal tender there, and sold the news of its implementation. Despite some hiccups with Bitcoin wallets in El Salvador, the implementation went smoothly enough that Bitcoin Magazine's Aaron van Wirdum was able to buy his McDonald's breakfast in San Salvador with Bitcoin. 

So Much For The Republic of The Savior

As we wrote when President Bukele announced his plans to make Bitcoin legal tender in June (The Republic Of The Savior), El Salvador held some downside risks for the crypto currency:

Before Bitcoin maximalists imagine the rest of the world following El Salvador's example, they ought to acknowledge that El Salvador has a dollarized economy now. Without its own currency, it has nothing to lose by accepting Bitcoin; in contrast countries with their own currencies would be giving up the seigniorage that comes with it. The other thing they ought to acknowledge is that, for better or worse, El Salvador is now the poster boy for Bitcoin, and the lofty claims made about it. For a small taste of those claims, see the pinned tweet by MicroStrategy, Inc. MSTR Michael Saylor below.

For an acknowledgement that El Salvador is now a poster boy for Bitcoin, see Balaji Srinivasan's tweet below,

Or Joe Wiesenthal's,

The challenge for Bitcoin enthusiasts is that El Salvador is, well, El Salvador. Salvadoran immigrants have struggled in the U.S., as Jason DeParle noted in a dispiriting New York Times article ("Struggling to Rise in Suburbs Where Failing Means Fitting In"). One might hope El Salvador's embrace of Bitcoin will attract talented immigrants to El Salvador, but that hope should be tempered by knowledge that El Salvador has the highest homicide rate in the world.

The chances are, the next rally in Bitcoin will be sparked by something other than positive news out of El Salvador.