Bitcoin is suffering as the crypto space continues to implode with the announcement of Silvergate Capital’s (SI) liquidation, but the futures contract perhaps has been holding up better than one might expect. /BTC is down about -13% since its 30-day highs in mid-February and is still in a shorter-term downward trend, but overall price is little changed from the range it’s been trading within since January 17.
The contract largely has been within 21,000 and 24,000, with a slight excursion to the upside that was stymied at the 252-day Exponential Moving Average just above the 25,000 level. It’s also near the yearly Linear Regression line which comes in at about 21,530 – a notion of “fair value” based on a line of best fit.
However, momentum has been falling noticeably. The Relative Strength Index (known as the RSI, which measures the speed and magnitude of price changes) has been steadily trending down as price has remained range-bound and recently slipped below the 50 midline that connotates a switch from bullishness to bearishness.
There are a few key levels to watch going forward, namely the confluence of the 50-day Simple Moving Average around 21,460 and the 63-day EMA which is currently near 21,409 for potential support. The 21,000 level is just below that, and the next area of note is the yearly Volume Profile Point of Control around 19,370. To the upside, watch the 21-EMA near 22,720 followed by the 24,000 range highs.
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