Editor's note: This article has been corrected to reflect that Arthur Hayes is the co-founder and former CEO of BitMex.
BitMex co-founder and former CEO Arthur Hayes sees $40,000 as a difficult level for Bitcoin BTC/USD to maintain.
Expect a local bottom between $30,000 and $35,000, Hayes predicts.
What Happened: “I believe Bitcoin will dip before the BTFP renewal decision on March 12th. I didn’t expect it to happen so soon, but I think Bitcoin will find a local bottom between $30,000 and $35,000," Hayes said in a new blog post.
Technically, a 30% correction from the ETF approval high of $48,000 is $33,600, supporting his thesis as the level between $30,000 and $35,000 as support.
"That is why I purchased 29 March 2024 $35,000 strike puts," he added.
Hayes also dumped his trading positions in Solana and Bonk "at a slight loss” but will enter new positions if Bitcoin drops below $35,000.
Read Also: Bitcoin Crash Looming? BitMEX's Arthur Hayes Predicts Rug Pull Dropping Price By 40%
Why It Matters: Hayes cites the upcoming March 12 decision on renewing banks' Bank Term Funding Program as the key driver impacting Bitcoin prices, not the recent Grayscale outflows. If the program is not renewed, banks will have to repay almost $200 billion in borrowed funds. However, if the government extends the program, crypto will be “off to the races.”
He added, “I will close my puts and go to maximum levels of crypto risk by continuing to sell Treasury bills and purchasing crypto.”
For context, the program supports lending; non-renewal could tighten markets.
Social media observers were not impressed by Hayes' latest predictions, with one calling him "the new Cramer" — a reference to crypto skeptic and "Mad Money" host Jim Cramer.
However, Hayes maintained that Bitcoin and crypto are the last freely traded markets globally and any changes in dollar liquidity will be reflected in these markets first.
Image: Shutterstock.
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