Bitcoin Supply Squeeze? ARK Invest's Cathie Wood Predicts $1M+ Bitcoin Price

While many have made claims on where they see Bitcoin going in the future, very few are as notable as the predictions made by Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood. Her base case for 2030 is a Bitcoin price of $600,000, almost 10 times that of the current price. In her bull case, she sees Bitcoin reaching $1.5 million by 2030. If Bitcoin were to reach a $1.5 million price level, the market cap would be more than $30 trillion.

Her initial bull case prediction was $1 million, but she upped it to $1.5 million after the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETFs, among other factors. Specifically Wood pointed to more long-term and institutional holders, more holders in general, a rising hash rate and the ETFs. 

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ARK and 21Shares launched one of the ETFs (ARKB). The ETF has the third lowest expense ratio out of the active spot ETFs and has garnered net assets of over $2 billion in less than 2 months. 

The ETF has largely been a success, attracting huge inflows and performing well against the market, up nearly 60% in the past month alone. 

ETFs as a whole have also changed the dynamics of Bitcoin supply. Before, a handful of institutions were involved in Bitcoin, and prices were a bit more skewed towards retail trader sentiment. However, with new buying activity, some predict a supply squeeze could be on the horizon. 

Inflows to the ETFs hit an all-time high last week, seeing nearly $680 million of inflows in one day. This means that the funds are buying more Bitcoin every day, which is eating away at the liquidity provided by sellers.

Additionally, the ETFs have seen net inflows of several billion dollars since they began trading. The trend has been one of continuous buying. If this trend of daily buying were to continue, the entire liquid supply of Bitcoin (~1.3 million BTC) would be under ETF management by September 2024. 

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While this is extremely unlikely to happen as more traders would take profit if the price of Bitcoin continues to go higher and ETF inflows are likely to slow down, it still shows how close the market is to reaching the capacity of liquid sellers in the order books. 

A better idea to consider is thinking about the point at which traders will begin to sell. While some believe that the current ATH of around $69,000 could serve as a point of resistance and take-profit level, others are looking at high prices, such as $100,000. Few are venturing even higher, such as Wood. 

The price of Bitcoin is determined by the laws of supply and demand. It will be interesting to see how the new demand brought by the ETFs will impact the supply of sellers in the coming months and years. 

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