Does 'Sell In May And Go Away' Work For Bitcoin? This Researcher Crunched The Numbers

Crypto researcher TradeTheFlow challenged the prevailing notion that summer is a dull period for cryptocurrency markets, particularly Bitcoin BTC/USD.

What Happened: In a detailed thread on X, Flow analyzes Bitcoin's performance between June 1 and September 30 over the past eight years. He finds mixed results that suggest summer is not necessarily a period of stagnation for Bitcoin.

After the "Sell in May and go away" meta, my timeline is now full of "summer is boring for crypto"

But is this actually real? Let's crunch the number👇 pic.twitter.com/tsxp2rov41

— flow (@tradetheflow_) June 5, 2024

Over the past eight years, Bitcoin's summer performance has been evenly split, with 50% of the summers ending in the green and the other 50% in the red. The average performance during these months was an 8.4% increase, with a minimum performance of -35.4% and a maximum of 79.2%.

The total crypto market cap and Bitcoin’s volatility index chart contradict the belief that summer is marked by low volatility and sideways price action.

Expanding the analysis over the last 11 years, Flow found that 45% of the summer months ended positively while 55% were negative. This further disproves the idea that summer months are predictably boring for Bitcoin.

Also Read: Bitcoin All-Time Highs A ‘Stone’s Throw Away’ If It Starts Closing Above This Price, Predicts Trader

Why It Matters: Flow’s analysis highlights that seasonality is not a definitive factor in Bitcoin's price action. More significant elements, such as macroeconomic conditions, play a crucial role. Flow suggests that this summer could be driven by macroeconomic factors, hinting at a potentially exciting and bullish period ahead.

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas also pushed back against the ‘selling in May’ narrative, pointing to ETF investors who pooled $58 billion into equity ETFs, a record for the month.

Sell in May? No.. I don't think I will, said ETF investors who plowed $58b into equity ETFs, a record for the month, and esp big for an election year. Fixed income no slouch, taking in $27b, its biggest month in over a year. Total ETF flows YTD now +$315b via @SirYappityyapp pic.twitter.com/XycevUlgwX

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) June 5, 2024

What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

Read Next: Trader Sketches ‘Somewhat Safe’ Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Investment Ideas For 4 To 7 Figure Portfolios

This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Image created using artificial intelligence with Midjourney.