Mt. Gox Bitcoin Distributions Won't Be That Bad And Ethereum ETF Could Surprise: Galaxy Research

Crypto analyst Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research predicts less market impact than expected from upcoming Mt. Gox Bitcoin BTC/USD distributions, while remaining cautiously optimistic about Ethereum ETH/USD ETF inflows.

What Happened: In a recent Unchained podcast episode, Galaxy’s Head of Research Alex Thorn predicted that only about 64,000 Bitcoin out of the total 142,000 BTC will be distributed to individual creditors, with much of that unlikely to be immediately sold.

"I don’t think the Gox selling really can be that much," Thorn stated, suggesting the market impact could be minimal. He noted that many Mt. Gox creditors are likely long-term Bitcoin holders who have resisted selling their claims for years.

"If we use some naive assumptions, you know, if we say 10% of the 65,000 is sold, that’s still 6,500 coins that could be dumped on the market," Thorn said, emphasizing that while there will be some selling, it’s likely to be less than many expect.

Regarding Ethereum ETFs, Thorn projected potential inflows of around $1 billion per month for the first five months, totaling $5 billion. This estimate is based on comparing various Bitcoin and Ethereum exposure products. “I think a lot of people are pessimistic relative to the Bitcoin ETF inflows,” he noted.

However, he suggested that Ethereum ETFs could potentially perform better than expected, drawing parallels to the successful launch of Bitcoin ETFs.

Also Read: Why Bitcoin Will Rally Again In July

Why It Matters: The analysis challenges prevailing market concerns about significant sell pressure from Mt. Gox distributions. It also provides a more optimistic outlook on Ethereum ETF demand than some other analysts have suggested.

Thorn sees the U.S. election and potential regulatory changes as the major catalysts for crypto markets through the end of the year. "Very tough to take a strong directional view for me on this market between now and November," he stated.

He also noted the recent Solana ETF filing by VanEck but expressed skepticism about its near-term approval chances given the SEC’s current stance on Solana as a potential security. "This is very unlikely to be approved," Thorn concluded.

What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

Read Next: Mt. Gox To Start Repaying Bitcoin In July: $9B In Sell Pressure Coming?

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