Bitcoin's Performance For The Rest Of 2024 Hinges On This Historical Pattern

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen shed light on Bitcoin‘s BTC/USD potential trajectory in the fourth quarter of 2024, charting several potential price paths.

What Happened: Cowen pointed out on Sunday that Bitcoin’s performance in Q4 2024 will largely depend on whether it can surpass its bull market support band (BMSB) in the next few weeks.

He noted that Bitcoin has previously fallen below its BMSB during summer lulls, as seen in 2013, 2016 and 2023. In these instances, Bitcoin managed to rally hard in Q4. However, he also highlighted the summer of 2019, when Bitcoin entered a downtrend after falling below the BMSB, resulting in a Q4 decline.

Another crypto trader predicted $95,000 for Bitcoin and suggested not believing that it will reach new lows. He pointed out that only three out of 120 indicators are bearish, stating to, "decide whether you are betting on an event that has a 2.5% chance of happening or a 97.5% chance."

Also Read: ‘Line In The Sand’ Will Make Or Break Bitcoin’s Bull Market, Top Traders Say

Why It Matters: Cowen’s analysis suggests two potential outcomes for Bitcoin in Q4 2024:

• If it follows the 2019 trend, Bitcoin may experience a decline.
• If it mirrors the 2013, 2016 and 2023 trends, Bitcoin could see a significant rally.

A Q4 decline could lead to a "normal peak" in Q4 2025, as Bitcoin usually peaks in the post-halving year, according to Cowen. Conversely, a parabolic rally in Q4 2024 could suggest an earlier peak in the cycle, providing more evidence to the left-translated peak theory.

Cowen concluded his analysis by stating that the answer will likely depend on whether Bitcoin can surpass its BMSB in the coming weeks.

What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

Read Next:

• Bitcoin’s Bullish Future: Analyst Predicts 80% Rally After Correction, But Here’s The Catch

Image: Shutterstock

This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.