President Biden's Exit Followed Nearly $80M In Wagers On Crypto Prediction Market Polymarket

Polymarket data shows almost $80 million have been wagered on the immediate political future of President Joe Biden.

What Happened: The most substantial betting pool focused on predicting the Democratic nominee, a process set to begin officially at the party’s convention on Aug. 19.

Biden’s recent resignation has thrown these predictions into disarray, Coindesk reported.

A total of $51.5 million was wagered directly on whether Biden would be the nominee out of a total betting pool of $205 million.

At the end of June, the odds of Biden securing the nomination were trading at 90 cents, indicating a 90% chance.

Despite volatility in early July, as calls for Biden to withdraw grew louder, the odds remained steady at 80 cents by July 17.

One trader, known as AnonBidenBull, suffered significant losses, dropping nearly $1.8 million on this contract and over $2 million on related bets.

In separate markets, $27.5 million was wagered on whether Biden would resign. This excludes bets related to the overall presidency.

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The largest of these markets, with $21 million at stake, questioned if Biden would drop out of the race.

Other markets speculated on the exact date of his resignation or if he would appear on specific state ballots.

A user named ‘therealbatman‘ faced substantial losses, losing nearly $647,500 on the bet regarding Biden dropping out and around $1 million in total on Biden-related bets.

Polymarket highlighted on X that traders had given Biden a significant edge to drop out just before the announcement was made, with the market hitting 100% moments before media coverage broke the news.

Market data indicated a surge of activity just before the announcement.

The most profitable political trader appears to be user polybets1, who has profited $691,000 on positions worth $1.7 million, betting on Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

What’s Next: For a deeper dive into the implications of these political betting markets and their impact on the digital asset space, attend Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

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