A Polymarket trader known as “BigMikeBeliever” has suffered a substantial loss betting on former first lady Michelle Obama‘s potential nomination for the 2024 Presidential race.
According to data from the prediction market platform Polymarket, the trader is currently down $329,356.99 on their positions.
The trader, who joined Polymarket in June 2024, has been particularly bullish on Michelle Obama’s prospects, holding 2,349,599 shares in the market asking “Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?”
However, recent market movements have not been kind to this position.
As of the latest data, the market now values Obama’s chances at a mere 1 cent per share, down from an average of 7 cents.
This places her far behind current front-runner Vice President Kamala Harris, who is given a 97% probability of winning the nomination.
This dramatic drop has resulted in a 82.25% loss on this position alone, amounting to $130,640.07.
The trader’s conviction appears to stem from persistent speculation about Obama’s potential entry into the race, despite her repeated statements declining any interest in running for office. Furthermore, Michelle Obama and former President Barack Obama endorsed the Vice President, which likely contributed to the trader’s collapsing position.
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Why It Matters: The Polymarket platform, which allows users to bet on the outcomes of various events, shows that over $274 million has been wagered on this particular market.
Despite Obama’s enduring popularity among Democrats, bettors appear to be skeptical of her entering the race at this late stage.
Other potential candidates fare even worse in the betting odds.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is given less than a 1% chance, as are other possibilities grouped under “Other (Incl. Whitmer),” likely referring to Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
The intersection of prediction markets, cryptocurrencies, and political forecasting highlights the growing influence of digital assets in shaping public discourse and decision-making.
This topic is likely to be a point of discussion at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on November 19.
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