Crypto expert Benjamin Cowen provided a technical analysis update on Bitcoin’s BTC/USD latest price performance, comparing it its performance in previous cycles.
What Happened: Cowen noted in his Sunday podcast update about Bitcoin support bands that the apex crypto has been struggling to stay above the bull market support band, currently ranging from around $61,000 to $63,500. He compared the current situation to August 2023, when Bitcoin took several weeks to regain its position above the 20-week simple moving average (SMA).
Drawing parallels to 2019, Cowen highlighted similarities in market behavior, particularly about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. He pointed out that Bitcoin's current pattern of lower highs and lower lows resembles the 2019 cycle, which lasted about 28 weeks before breaking the downtrend structure.
Cowen also discussed the recent "death cross" event, where the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin has been struggling to surpass these moving averages, which Cowen attributes to factors such as labor market weakness and sticky inflation.
Why It Matters: The analyst emphasized the importance of Bitcoin dominance, suggesting that until it reaches around 60% (currently at 55.9%), Bitcoin may remain range bound. He noted that altcoins are showing clearer signs of a downtrend compared to Bitcoin, reflecting a shift in market dynamics.
"If you’re losing interest, you're not the only one," Cowen remarked, pointing to low social interest in cryptocurrencies, particularly among altcoin investors. Google Trends indicates that Bitcoin's interest currently stands at 29, compared to 100 on August 5.
Looking ahead, Cowen speculated that negative seasonality might continue for a while but cautioned that this doesn’t preclude short-term price increases. He suggested that a significant market shift might only occur with a return to looser monetary policy and lower interest rates.
What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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