Polymarket now indicates an 80% likelihood that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will exit the 2024 race before November.
This latest forecast indicates the highest chance thus far, with the odds on Kennedy dropping out having surged from 50% to 80% in a matter of days.
Dropout Speculation Intensifies
The surge in dropout predictions, as reflected in Polymarket’s data, comes amid ongoing deliberations within the Kennedy campaign about its future strategy.
With $23,147 in bets placed on this outcome and an Oct. 31, 2024 resolution date, the market seems to be pricing in a high probability of Kennedy’s withdrawal well before the general election.
Nicole Shanahan, Kennedy’s running mate, recently disclosed that the campaign is considering two primary options:
“One is staying in, forming that new party, but we run the risk of a Kamala Harris and Buttigieg presidency… or we walk away right now and join forces with Donald Trump,” Shanahan stated.
Kennedy Reaffirms Campaign Goals
Amid speculation about his campaign’s future, Kennedy took to social media to reaffirm his commitment to his long-standing goals.
“As always, I am willing to talk with leaders of any political party to further the goals I have served for 40 years in my career and in this campaign. These are: reversing the chronic disease epidemic, ending the war machine, cleaning corporate influence out of government and toxic pollution out of the environment, protecting freedom of speech, and ending politicization of enforcement agencies,” he said in a statement.
This statement suggests that while Kennedy is open to discussions with various political leaders, including potentially Trump, his focus remains on the core issues that have defined his campaign and career.
Also Read: Crypto Industry Awaits Kamala Harris’s Stance As Election Season Heats Up
Crypto Stance Remains In Focus
As speculation about his campaign’s future mounts, Kennedy’s bold stance on cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin BTC/USD, continues to draw attention.
He has proposed a plan for the federal government to accumulate Bitcoin until its holdings match the nation’s gold reserves – a proposition that would involve acquiring Bitcoin worth nearly $579 billion.
Kennedy has described Bitcoin as an “honest currency” and an “offramp to the inflationary highway,” emphasizing its potential role in economic policy.
This pro-cryptocurrency position aligns Kennedy with a broader shift in the political landscape, where digital assets are increasingly becoming a topic of interest.
Shifting Political Crypto Landscape
The potential dropout of a pro-crypto candidate like Kennedy could significantly impact the discourse around digital assets in the political arena.
Interestingly, other political figures, including former President Donald Trump, have also evolved their positions on digital assets.
Trump, once a vocal critic of cryptocurrency, now reportedly holds between $1 million and $5 million in digital assets, according to recent financial disclosures.
At the recent Bitcoin 2024 conference, Trump announced plans to transform the U.S. into a “crypto superpower” if re-elected, stating, “This afternoon I’m laying out my plan to ensure that the United States will be the crypto capital of the planet and the Bitcoin superpower of the world.”
Looking Ahead
As the November elections approach, the intersection of politics and cryptocurrency is expected to be a significant talking point.
The high probability of Kennedy’s dropout, as indicated by Polymarket, could reshape the political landscape and the future of cryptocurrency policy in the United States.
Industry observers and political analysts will be closely watching these developments, particularly at events like Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets conference on Nov. 19.
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