Bitcoin's Lackluster Price Action: What Is Going On?

Bitcoin’s BTC/USD recent price action has been eerily similar to 2019, according to prominent crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, who suggests this pattern may soon change as market sentiment shifts.

What Happened: Cowen, known for his data-driven approach, in his latest stream pointed out that Bitcoin’s lower highs and a struggle to maintain above the bull market support band mirror the 2019 price action.

However, the analyst notes a growing discomfort with the 2019 comparison. "There’s part of me that is finally starting to think about the 2019 comparison as uncomfortable," as many who initially dismissed the comparison are now embracing it, potentially signaling a need for the trend to change.

Cowen suggests that Bitcoin’s future may be more closely tied to monetary policy than strict adherence to historical patterns. He speculates that it might take "about 200 basis points of rate cuts" to break Bitcoin out of its current downtrend. Polymarket data shows a 73% chance for a 25 basis points cut in September.

Also Read: Why Is Bitcoin Underperforming Against Gold? Because They’re ‘Not Meaningfully Correlated,’ Analyst Points Out

Why It Matters: Cowen draws attention to other metrics, such as gold’s performance and USDT dominance, which have played out as he predicted earlier this year. These factors contribute to his overall market assessment.

Looking ahead, Cowen presents multiple scenarios. While he believes the market could remain "relatively boring for a few more months," he's open to pivoting his analysis as new data emerges. He warns of potential risks, including a concerning trend in unemployment rates. For the week ending Aug. 30, initial jobless claims came in at 231,000, compared to an expectation of 232,000.

What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

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