Technical analyst Benjamin Cowen provided an update on Bitcoin’s BTC/USD bull market support band, suggesting that despite recent price drops, the cryptocurrency may not have reached its peak yet.
What Happened: In his latest podcast update, Cowen noted that as of Sep. 9, the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) is around $62,500, while the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) is just north of $60,000. He emphasized the importance of respecting these levels as both support and resistance.
The analyst suggested that Bitcoin’s main resistance area is between $60,000 and $64,000, with the bull market support band aligning with these levels. He emphasized that Bitcoin would need to surpass $69,000 to break through the lower-high structure.
Comparing the current market situation to last year, Cowen pointed out a key difference: “Last year we saw a series of higher lows and higher highs going into that next move. This has been a series of lower lows and lower highs.”
Also Read: Crypto Analyst Benjamin Cowen Warns of Summer Correction Amid Bitcoin Dip
Why It Matters: Interestingly, Cowen observed that many who previously dismissed the 2019 comparison are now embracing it. He cautioned, "If everyone believes it, then Bitcoin’s probably going to do something else."
The analyst revisited his prediction from six months ago, where he suggested a potential six to nine-month cooling-off period for the market. Cowen drew parallels to 2019 when Bitcoin experienced a similar 25-week drop before picking up again.
The analyst also highlighted the potential impact of monetary policy on Bitcoin’s price action. He noted that in the last cycle, Bitcoin didn’t break its lower-high structure until after 75 basis points of rate cuts. Currently, there have been no rate cuts yet, with the Federal funds rate at 5.50%.
He urged viewers to keep an open mind about Bitcoin’s future price movements, considering both technical indicators and broader economic factors like monetary policy.
What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
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