Contrarian Trader Bets $200K To Win $6.5M On This Unlikely Fed Rate Cut Scenario

A Polymarket trader, going by the alias BasedBoi, has placed a $200,000 bet that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in its much-anticipated Sep. 18 meeting.

What Happened: The trader down over $100,000 on his bet, which, if successful, would yield a $6.5 million payout.

The Federal Reserve’s decision has kept market participants on edge, with a rate cut seen as practically assured. The CME Fedwatch tool shows a 100% probability for a rate cut, while the corresponding Polymarket markets price a rate cut at 98.5%.

The size of the cut is more contentious.

Polymarket data shows a 43% chance the Fed will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) and a 56% chance is attributed to a more aggressive 50 bps reduction. Over $12 million have been traded on these two options alone, with the entire market racking up a trading volume of over $45 million.

The odds diverge from Fedwatch, where a 50bps cut is a 67:33 favorite.

Also Read: Donald Trump To Visit Springfield, Ohio ‘Soon’? Not So Fast, Polymarket Traders Say

Why It Matters: This massive bet is set against a backdrop of heightened expectations as investors eagerly await the Fed’s next move.

Bitcoin BTC/USD remains flat at $59,150, while Ethereum ETH/USD is slightly up at $2,312, reflecting broader market caution as uncertainty looms.

Experts expects some form of rate cut, with a nearly even split between a 25 bps and 50 bps reduction.

This makes BasedBoi’s maverick bet even more of an outlier, risking a significant portion of capital on the belief that the Fed will hold rates steady.

This tension between market expectations and individual bets will be a key point of discussion at Benzinga's Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19, where industry leaders will explore how macroeconomic factors like interest rate cuts are influencing the broader digital assets and crypto markets.

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Image created using artificial intelligence with Midjourney.