Kamala Harris Edges Into 50:48 Election Betting Odds Lead, But This Billionaire Warns He Will Pull Out Of The Market If The Vice President Wins

Following Taylor Swift's endorsement last week, Vice President Kamala Harris is the slight odds favorite to win the 2024 presidential election.

What Happened: Polymarket data shows Harris’s chances at 50.2%, compared to Donald Trump’s 48.2%. Over $935 million have been traded.

Harris also leads the popular vote winner market with a 77% to 23% chance, closing in on her biggest lead on this market, whcih dates back to Aug.16.

Interestingly, ElectionBettingOdds.com data, which aggregates different election betting odds, shows the Vice President with a 52.9% chance, compared to Trump’s 45.7%. Smaller betting markets like PredictIt and the overseas betting exchange Betfair continue to assign Harris a markedly higher chance of winning than Polymarket.

The Democratic Party is the 62.5% favorite to win control of the House of Representatives.

538, one of the most popular websites tracking opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the U.S., shows the Vice President leading the popular vote share by 48.3% to 45.3%. The numbers, as of Sep.17, 2024, are based on polling averages adjusted based on state and national polls.

Also Read: Bitcoin Will Hit $125K If Donald Trump Wins, $75K In Case Of A Kamala Harris Victory: Standard Chartered

Why It Matters: Hedge fund billionaire John Paulson, a top fundraiser for the Trump campaign, has announced that in case of a Harris win, he will withdraw his investments from the market and move into cash and gold, according to a Fox Business report.

Paulson expressed concerns regarding Harris' economic policies including increasing the corporate tax rate, raising the capital gains tax and introducing a 25% tax on unrealized gains for wealthy individuals. Paulson warned that such policies could lead to mass selling and market crash.

CNBC’s latest Fed survey shows Harris edging out Trump by 48% to 41% as the likely winner of the November election.

This contrasts results from late July, which found that 50% sided with Trump.

Early last week, Bernstein analysts forecasted if Donald Trump wins the election Bitcoin could spike to $90,000 but Kamala Harris’s win could push prices down to $40,000.

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• Trump In Trouble: Vice President Harris Has Record 6-Point Lead In 2024 Election Poll After Debate, Posts Highest Rankings In Key Demographics

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