Polymarket Traders Predict 45% Chance Of No Prison Time For Former FTX CEO Caroline Ellison

Traders are leaning toward the possibility that Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda Research, will avoid prison time.

What Happened: Polymarket prediction market data shows a 45% chance that Ellison will receive no prison time, with $153,679 bet on this outcome.

Traders are currently betting 49 cents for “Yes” and 59 cents for “No” regarding her receiving no jail time.

The market also predicts other potential outcomes for her sentencing, with a 21% chance that Ellison will serve between 1-11 months in prison.

This category has seen $52,225 wagered, with a 23-cent price for “Yes” and an 82-cent price for “No.”

Additionally, there is a 24% chance she will serve between 12-23 months, with $27,498 bet, and respective prices of 28 cents for “Yes” and 81 cents for “No.”

Also Read: Experts Predict Bitcoin Surge To $65,000 As Crypto Market Remains Steady

The smallest probability, at just 6%, is for a sentence of 24-35 months, with $27,724 staked and a price of 6 cents for “Yes” and 94.1 cents for “No.”

Ellison’s sentencing hearing is set for Tuesday in New York, where her legal team has been pushing for supervised release, citing her “extraordinary cooperation” with prosecutors.

Ellison had previously filed a plea deal shortly after her former colleague and FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was charged in December 2022, agreeing to fully cooperate with authorities in exchange for leniency.

Traders are betting heavily on the possibility of no jail time, which reflects the defense’s argument for leniency, but they have also placed substantial wagers on short-term prison outcomes, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the case.

What’s Next: These developments will be closely watched ahead of Benzinga's Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19, where experts are expected to discuss the regulatory and legal impacts of major cases like Ellison's on the broader crypto industry.

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