Bitcoin BTC/USD could reach $80,000 to $90,000 if Republican nominee Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November, according to Bernstein analysts.
What Happened: Amid a widening divergence in Trump’s favor on the prediction market Polymarket, Bernstein analysts, Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia, stated in a note to clients on Wednesday that “A Trump win would be incrementally positive for bitcoin and crypto markets.”
As reported by The Block, Bitcoin could touch a new high of “$80K to $90K,” the analysts said. The previous record was $74,000.
Conversely, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, the analysts suggest Bitcoin could “test a new low in the $40Ks range.”
They maintain a positive long-term outlook for Bitcoin regardless of the election outcome, citing factors such as low interest rates, continued U.S. fiscal deficits and high debt levels.
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Why It Matters: It’s worth noting that cryptocurrency analysts often produce varying predictions due to several factors, such as market volatility, different analysis methods and sentiment.
As a result, crypto predictions are generally less reliable, and it’s wise to approach them cautiously and consider multiple perspectives.
Just last month, Standard Chartered predicted that Bitcoin would reach $125,000 by the end of 2024 if Trump wins, and $75,000 is Harris wins.
Trump continues to position himself as a pro-crypto candidate, accepting cryptocurrency donations and proposing policies to make the U.S. a “bitcoin mining powerhouse.”
In contrast, Harris has only recently addressed crypto in her campaign, offering broader comments on encouraging crypto business while protecting consumers.
Bernstein’s analysts expect Bitcoin to continue reacting to election odds, becoming more positive if Trump’s perceived chances of victory increase. They anticipate other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum ETH/USD and Solana SOL/USD to remain range-bound until after the election, when there’s more clarity on regulatory appointments.
The note also addresses the recent divergence in Trump’s favor on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform. While some argue the platform may have an intrinsic bias towards Trump due to his pro-crypto stance, the analysts believe the significant liquidity on Polymarket makes it a robust indicator.
As of the latest data, Trump leads Harris by 7% on Polymarket, with 53.2% odds of winning compared to Harris’s 46.2%. The analysts note that Trump also leads in several key swing states on the platform, although a new Times/Siena poll found Harris leading by four percentage points nationally.
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