Bitcoin BTC/USD could soar to $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by a combination of rising institutional demand and supply reduction following the latest halving.
What Happened: In their October “Bitcoin Investing Guide,” Bernstein analysts highlighted Bitcoin's unique supply structure, particularly its capped total supply of 21 million coins and the halving events that reduce the rate at which new coins are created. These events occur every four years and effectively reduce the selling pressure from miners.
"After each halving cycle, the miners' rewards halve, which means half the miner sell pressure in the market," the report noted.
A major factor in this cycle is the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which launched in January 2024. By September 2024, these ETFs had already accumulated $60 billion in assets under management, with Bernstein predicting this number could grow to $190 billion by the end of 2025.
Institutional adoption is expected to play a pivotal role in Bitcoin's growth, with these ETFs providing access to traditional capital markets. While 80% of current ETF flows come from retail investors, Bernstein expects institutional participation to rise significantly.
According to a recent tweet by CryptoQuant's founder, U.S. institutional ownership of spot Bitcoin ETFs is around 20%, with asset managers collectively holding 193,000 BTC.
Also Read: Bitcoin Dips Below $67,000: Watch These Key Support Levels, Says Analyst
Why It Matters: Bernstein's model, based on a multiple of the marginal cost of production, suggests Bitcoin could rise to $500,000 by 2029 and potentially $1 million by 2033. For the 2025 target, the report estimates Bitcoin could reach 1.5 times its marginal production cost, leading to a projected price of $200,000—about three times its current value.
The analysts highlighted the “accumulate phase,” during which long-term holders buy up Bitcoin and surviving miners add capacity. Given Bitcoin’s status as a relatively new asset class, it has substantial room for growth compared to traditional financial assets.
Bernstein predicts that by 2025, Bitcoin ETFs could control 7% of the circulating supply, with this number potentially rising to 15% by 2033, up from the current 4.5%
What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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