Former FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver offered two contrasting interpretations of the presidential race, suggesting that both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump could outperform their current poll numbers.
What Happened: Silver wrote in an opinion piece in the New York Times on Wednesday that his “gut” says Donald Trump will emerge victorious, but he cautioned that anxious Democrats should not value his intuition.
In a blog post titled “Why Harris could beat her polls,” Silver later elaborated that even a typical polling error of around 3 points could lead to one candidate sweeping all seven key battleground states. According to Silver’s simulations, “the most common outcome was Trump winning all 7 swing states: this happened 24 percent of the time. And the next most common was a Harris sweep, which occurred in 15 percent of simulations.”
Silver dismissed the “shy Trump voter” theory. Instead, he points to nonresponse bias as the likely culprit, stating, “It’s not that Trump voters are lying to pollsters; it’s that in 2016 and 2020, pollsters weren’t reaching enough of them.”
The statistician cautioned against assuming the polls will necessarily favor Trump this time and warned that pollsters might even be overcompensating, citing the 2017 general election in the United Kingdom as an example of a polling error going against a conservative party.
Why It Matters: Donald Trump’s spiking poll numbers in October sent his odds on crypto-based prediction market Polymarket surging to a preliminary high of 64%, up from just below 50% at the start of the month.
The former President’s improving election odds have coincided with — or possibly been caused by — a mysterious entity with positions worth over $50 million to date should Trump win the electoral college, the popular vote or both.
Pseudonymous trader ‘Redegen’ on Tuesday shared a screenshot of several positions taking the other side of the “Trump whale.” The trader holds positions worth over $3 million on Harris winning the electoral college and the popular vote.
Polymarket has found itself at the forefront of election-based betting, with over $1 billion traded on the two candidates. In light of speculation about market manipulation, the prediction market announced on Tuesday a review of its user base to ensure no U.S.-based traders are active on its markets.
Read Next:
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Comments
Trade confidently with insights and alerts from analyst ratings, free reports and breaking news that affects the stocks you care about.
