Standard Chartered has predicted that Bitcoin BTC/USD will hit $73,000 by the time of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, with the cryptocurrency expected to surge beyond $80,000 shortly after if former President Donald Trump wins.
What Happened: The bank’s analysis, based on current options data and betting odds, suggests that Trump’s growing lead in key polls is boosting investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market.
"The odds of a Trump victory, now at 59%, indicate Bitcoin will trade higher into the election," Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick said in a note sent to Benzinga.
The bank’s analysts believe that if Trump secures the presidency, a quick 4% rise in BTC could follow, taking the price to around $76,000.
Post-Election Surge Based On Options Data
Standard Chartered's forecast hinges on Bitcoin options break-even levels and popular call strike prices, which suggest that if Trump wins, BTC could quickly climb to $80,000.
The analysis highlights the heavy open interest in BTC calls with a December 27 expiry at the $80,000 level, indicating strong market anticipation of a post-election rally.
"Our estimates show a total price increase of around 10% from the pre-election price, taking Bitcoin to $80,000 within days of the presidential result," he said.
Also Read: India Mulls Ban On Bitcoin And Ethereum In Favor Of ‘Digital Rupee’
Year-End Target Of $125,000 In Play
Looking beyond the immediate aftermath of the election, Standard Chartered maintains its bullish outlook for Bitcoin, predicting that a Republican sweep of both the presidency and Congress could propel the cryptocurrency to $125,000 by the end of 2024.
This is contingent on the full results of the congressional races, which may take longer to confirm.
"Should the Republicans win Congress, the conditions will be set for a substantial year-end rally, bringing our $125,000 target into view," the report states.
However, the outlook changes if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election. In that scenario, Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to initially trade lower but still end the year at new highs around $75,000.
Broader Context And Market Trends
Bitcoin's recent price surge aligns with broader market optimism tied to Trump's improving election odds.
Bettors on blockchain based betting market Polymarket have given the former president a 61.9% chance of winning, with a Republican sweep adding to the bullish sentiment for Bitcoin.
This intersection of politics and crypto will be a key topic at Benzinga's Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19, where experts will discuss how factors like U.S. elections are shaping the future of digital currencies.
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