Influential economist Justin Wolfers noticed a significant shift in prediction market odds at Polymarket, sparking speculation about the declining influence of a whale heavily betting in favor of former President Donald Trump.
What Happened: Wolfers, in his X post on Sunday, drew attention to the sharp drop in betting odds for Trump, standing at 54% as of this writing, down from 66% on Oct. 30.
A professor at the Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan, Wolfers expressed uncertainty about whether this change was due to the diminishing sway of the whale or a recent shift in polling.
Interestingly, federally-regulated prediction market Kalshi has also seen Trump’s odds plummet from 64% on Oct. 30 to 52% as of this writing.
Why It Matters: Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, built atop Ethereum ETH/USD’s Layer-2 chain Polygon MATIC/USD, has attracted over $3 billion in wagers for the 2024 presidential election outcome.
However, concerns of market manipulation surfaced after a single trader, identified as a French national, started placing large wagers in favor of Trump. The trader has denied having any political agenda and said they were only in it for the money.
Another prominent Polymarket trader, ‘Redegen’, has reaffirmed his position on Vice President Kamala Harris winning the popular vote, even as Trump remains his favorite to win the electoral college. Redegen’s multi-million-dollar position on Harris has seen substantial fluctuation, but he remains confident in his prediction.
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