Will Donald Trump Prematurely Claim Victory? 5 Polymarket Markets To Watch On Election Night

With high stakes in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Polymarket is witnessing substantial trading volumes as users place bets on likely outcomes.

Here's a look at five of the top prediction markets that are drawing attention, offering data-driven insights into possible election day developments.

Record Turnout

The prediction market on whether the 2024 Presidential election will see record turnout currently shows a 69% chance for "Yes," with a trading volume of $1,760,535.

This market's high odds for record turnout indicate widespread anticipation of increased voter engagement, with bets expiring on Dec. 17, 2024.

The Closest State

In the market predicting the closest state in the election, Pennsylvania is currently leading with a 25% chance, followed by Nevada at 21%, Michigan at 12.6%, and Wisconsin at 10%.

The total trading volume here is $822,518, indicating high interest in these key battlegrounds, with Pennsylvania expected to have the narrowest margin.

Also Read: Nate Silver’s Closest Call Yet: How 2024’s Election Stands Apart From His Predictions In 2016 And 2020

Will Donald Trump Prematurely Claim Victory?

Another high-stakes market is focused on whether Trump will claim victory before the Associated Press calls the election.

This market shows an 81% probability for a "Yes" outcome, reflecting a significant expectation that Trump may preemptively declare victory.

This market has seen a 31% increase recently and currently holds a trading volume of $73,088, with bets expiring on Nov. 5, 2024.

Will Donald Trump Win Every Swing State?

Polymarket users are also betting on whether Trump will win every swing state.

Although there's still trading activity, the probability is lower here, with only an 18% chance for a complete swing state sweep for Trump.

The market has experienced a decline of 33% in confidence, showing a current trading volume of $7,772,738.

This low probability reflects skepticism about Trump's performance across all swing states.

Will Kamala Harris Win White Women?

Finally, the market on who will win the demographic of white women shows Kamala Harris leading with a 60% chance, compared to Trump's 54%.

This market has recorded a 16% increase in Harris's odds, indicating shifting sentiment within this demographic group. With a volume of $500,321, this data suggests that Harris may hold a slight edge in this critical voting segment.

As these data points continue to evolve, the impact of these predictions on digital assets and markets will be explored further at Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

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• What The Election Outcome Means For Bitcoin’s Near-Term Price Action

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