Bitcoin's BTC/USD dip to $93,000 can be attributed to pressure from a combination of macroeconomic shifts, technical signals and on-chain trends, according to the latest note by 10x Research.
Despite this, the long-term outlook for 2025 appears optimistic, aligning with Bitcoin's historical cycles and broader economic trends, the analysts report.
The impact of rate cuts
One of the primary drivers of Bitcoin's decline is the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to monetary easing.
"The FOMC minutes hint at a pause in monetary easing," the report notes, highlighting how this shift removes a critical tailwind that has historically supported Bitcoin's growth.
Without the added boost from loose fiscal policies, Bitcoin has lost some of its upward momentum, exposing vulnerabilities in its price action.
Global liquidity taps start closing
Another factor impacting Bitcoin is its close correlation with global money supply changes.
The report points out that "over the past 12 months, a clear correlation has emerged, with changes in money supply leading Bitcoin's movements by approximately ten weeks."
This lagging effect has played out recently, as Bitcoin peaked in November following earlier monetary policy adjustments.
However, with the pace of monetary expansion slowing, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain its previous trajectory.
Technical indicators
Technical indicators also reveal why Bitcoin's price has faltered.
According to the report, Bitcoin "confirmed bearish daily reversal signals in play, with weekly signals likely to follow," suggesting a potential correction from overbought levels.
Analysts have identified critical support levels at $89,000 and $75,000, which will be key in determining whether Bitcoin can stabilize and regain momentum.
On-chain metrics offer additional context.
The realized profit-loss ratio and changes in long-term holder positions have signaled increased selling pressure from experienced investors.
The report notes, "A meaningful signal only emerges when this ratio reverses lower—indicating that longer-term holders are slowing their profitable coin sales."
This suggests that selling momentum could ease in the near future, paving the way for consolidation and eventual recovery.
What’s Next
Looking ahead, the report offers a cautiously optimistic view.
While December has historically been a bullish month for Bitcoin, the broader outlook for 2025 remains the real focus.
The report reinforces this sentiment, stating, "This pattern has consistently played out during Bitcoin’s short history, pointing to a continued bullish outlook for 2025."
With cyclical trends and potential macroeconomic shifts aligning, Bitcoin may be poised for another strong performance in the years ahead.
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