Bitcoin’s BTC/USD could be headed for a potential downturn, according to a technical analyst citing on-chain data and expert analysis.
What Happened: In a post on X on Dec. 26, Ali Martinez highlighted predictions from renowned analysts about a possible correction to $60,000. Here are the key perspectives:
- Tone Vays: The former Wall Street quant suggests Bitcoin trading below $95,000 raises the probability of a pullback to $73,000, calling it "very, very bad."
- Peter Brandt: The veteran trader sees a breakdown of Bitcoin’s "broadening triangle" pattern, potentially leading to a retracement toward $70,000.
- Fundstrat’s Mark Newton: While Fundstrat expects Bitcoin to hit $250,000 by 2025, Newton predicts a downswing to $60,000 in the short term.
- Benjamin Cowen: The industry expert suggests Bitcoin's trajectory might mirror that of the Invesco QQQ Trust. If so, a flash crash to $60,000 could align with significant macro events, such as the inauguration of president-elect Donald Trump.
Martinez also draws attention to critical on-chain data supporting the bearish outlook: a price correction to $70,000 seems plausible as Bitcoin trades below $93,806, with little support until $70,085.
Statistics: Over the past week, 33,000 BTC ($3.23 billion) has been transferred to exchanges, often a precursor to selling pressure.
Traders are realizing significant profits, with $7.17 billion taken off the table on Dec. 23. long positions on Binance having decreased sharply, from 66.73% to 53.60%.
Moreover, Bitcoin recently dipped below a critical support zone at $97,300.
Martinez argues that for the bearish scenario to be invalidated, Bitcoin must reclaim this level and maintain a daily close above $100,000.
A sustained recovery could then target $168,500.
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