Bettors on the cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket eyed a strong possibility that a new country would switch to the "Bitcoin BTC/USD Standard" this year.
What happened: A new contract titled, "Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?" went live on the Polygon POL/USD-based platform on New Year's Day, with odds in favor jumping past 75% as of this writing.
As per rules, the market will resolve to "Yes" if any sovereign U.N. member buys the apex cryptocurrency for the first time before Dec. 31. As of this writing, over $40,000 has been wagered on this bet.
Polymarket's official X handle posted the contract with the caption, "Who will follow in Nayib Bukele's footsteps?" referring to the pioneering Bitcoin embrace of El Salvador. The post was reshared by Bukele.
Why It Matters: El Salvador was indeed the first country to buy Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset back in 2021, in what was seen as an audacious move with regards to fiscal policy. The country has adopted a plan to buy one Bitcoin every day, until it becomes unaffordable with fiat currencies.
The Central American nation currently sits on a stockpile of 6,005 BTCs, worth nearly $582 million.
The list is dominated by bigger countries like the U.S., China, and the UK, although none of them treat Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.
As for the U.S., expectations have run high after Donald Trump's victory, who pledged to establish a national Bitcoin stockpile during the election campaign. As of this writing, the odds of the U.S. establishing a reserve in 2025 were 38% on Polymarket.
The U.S. government holds 198,109 Bitcoins in asset forfeiture funds, according to latest data analytics firm, Arkham Intelligence
Price Action: At the time of writing, Bitcoin was exchanging hands at $96,815.55, up 1.99% in the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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