Is The Bitcoin Top In? 75% Chance, Says Prominent Trader, But There's A Caveat

Bitcoin’s sudden course reversal from $102,000 to $95,000 has kickstarted a discussion among cryptocurrency traders and analysts about whether the Bitcoin BTC/USD cycle top is in.

What Happened: Prominent crypto trader Ansem shared his outlook on the market cycle in a detailed post on X, expressing scepticism about continued unbridled growth.

Responding to another trader’s assertion of a 20-25% chance that the market cycle has topped, Ansem countered with a 75% probability.

He highlighted all-time high stock valuations and overly optimistic expectations regarding the economic impact of the new administration.

Ansem notes that Trump-era policies, such as tariffs and job onshoring, could drive inflationary pressures, leading to higher consumer prices and employment rates.

The Fed's hawkish stance further dampens the likelihood of interest rate cuts, even as markets hope for cuts in 2025.

For the crypto sector, a strategic Bitcoin reserve plan—though bullish—is seen as improbable in the short term, while regulatory clarity for DeFi and stablecoins may not significantly materialize until post-2027.

Also Read: Bitcoin Is Suffering From A Shift In Macro Expectations, Analyst Says: Here’s What That Means

Outlook for 2025-2026: Ansem predicts a more measured uptrend rather than an "up only" cycle:

Growth will be driven by innovative projects, such as Ethena and Hyperliquid, and consumer-focused teams, such as Base and Parallel.

Broad altcoin rallies, like those seen in 2021, are unlikely due to tighter monetary conditions and market maturity.

Instead, sectoral rotations—such as the DeFi rally of 2021—will drive pockets of outperformance.

Retail investors heavily exposed to altcoins may perceive sideways trends in major cryptocurrencies as a bear market, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies.

Why It Matters: Ansem's insights reflect the evolving dynamics of the crypto market, with greater emphasis on selective, innovation-driven growth and caution toward broader market conditions.

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